NFL · resolved market
Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4f31817b0a0fd746b3d195fdc7fd0a153e45f2e50ed5948d0d42104812c76d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seahawksof Seahawks, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Seahawks | 48c | 2,074$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.78 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jaguars | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Seahawks | 47c | 588.79$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.06 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jaguars | 51c | 499.19$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.59 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Jaguars | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Seahawks | 47c | 376.79$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.7 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Seahawks | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Seahawks | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Jaguars | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…f264backed Jaguars | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Seahawks | 46c | 143.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbb…831fbacked Seahawks | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…a079backed Seahawks | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Jaguars | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Jaguars | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jaguars | 51c | 81.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Jaguars | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Jaguars | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Jaguars | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…4b8ebacked Jaguars | 53c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Jaguars | 53c | 48.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Seahawks | 47c | 48.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jaguars | 51c | 45.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Seahawks | 46c | 42.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Jaguars | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…ef81backed Jaguars | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 52cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…8c00backed Seahawks | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Seahawks | 47c | 36.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jaguars | 51c | 30.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…379bbacked Seahawks | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Seahawks | 49c | 29.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Jaguars | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Jaguars | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Seahawks | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)this page
- Seahawks vs. JaguarsSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.