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NFL · resolved market

Seahawks vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,168
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,987

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,168 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Over0c14,041$14 inLost-$14.045689.9%56 W · 512 L-1.4wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over50c10,000$5,000 inLost-$5,00051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c5,902$2,951 inWon+$2,9511,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Under50c2,823$1,412 inWon+$1,411.7461148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under51c2,067$1,054 inWon+$1,012.8311146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x637a…6d23backed Over49c2,050$1,005 inLost-$1,004.52458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71b3…a5d6backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon+$5003046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over39c641.92$250 inLost-$250.4464747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Under50c453.66$227 inWon+$226.8331350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under49c379.18$186 inWon+$193.3841851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Under50c307.6$154 inWon+$153.841947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Under51c300$153 inWon+$1476650%33 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over49c249.12$122 inLost-$122.0783447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Under50c220.7$111 inWon+$109.9541248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Over50c200$100 inLost-$10013347.4%63 W · 70 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Under52c192.31$100 inWon+$92.3111744.4%52 W · 65 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over48c180.31$87 inLost-$86.551,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Over51c147.25$75 inLost-$759151.6%47 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9205…ce7fbacked Over51c143.92$74 inLost-$73.84825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-61.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5340…5e2bbacked Over49c121.22$60 inLost-$6010750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Under51c104.04$53 inWon+$50.9811750.4%59 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Over50c100$50 inLost-$509348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed Over51c100$51 inLost-$50.719052.2%47 W · 43 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaeeb…645fbacked Under51c98.04$50 inWon+$48.041315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-69.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under50c90$45 inWon+$4583147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c1…012cbacked Over50c80$40 inLost-$406753.7%36 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over49c58.23$28 inLost-$28.3141450.5%209 W · 205 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a2e…3ef0backed Over49c40.82$20 inLost-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xacd8…b9f6backed Under52c33$17 inWon+$162948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.