NFL · resolved market
Seahawks vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6687a0768f127dc0c7db2c66823a7db8f1882cb6ba8abef339cb004b9c71b38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 67c | 4,139$2,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,789.9 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 52c | 2,515$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.27 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 48c | 2,442$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.84 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 2,213$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.02 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 44c | 958.83$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.46 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 913$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.02 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 54c | 833.33$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 4c | 654.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.65 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 610.5$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.41 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 49c | 534.18$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 51c | 447.5$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.23 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Over | 53c | 295.31$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.26 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 47c | 202.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Under | 50c | 200.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 50c | 192.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Over | 54c | 186$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 79.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Over | 48c | 21.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seahawks vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5this page
- Seahawks vs. JaguarsSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.