TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Falcons vs. 49ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
49ersof Falcons, 49ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,648,469
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,315,298

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,648,469 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 967 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Falcons50c1,156,925$576,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576,886.478344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Falcons52c776,316$402,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,599.1411145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked 49ers50c445,820$222,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222,909.973767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked 49ers48c427,617$205,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222,175.5541851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Falcons51c206,237$105,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105,1811942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed 49ers49c191,844$93,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,445.6612352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked 49ers51c189,184$96,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,327.3147738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e98…1f51backed Falcons49c144,304$70,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,936.683652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked 49ers49c133,670$65,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,799.5233553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed 49ers51c127,600$64,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,90027454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Falcons51c122,540$62,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,495.2420755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed 49ers51c117,488$59,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,825.9819553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed 49ers50c109,432$54,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,758.883135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fce…2229backed 49ers42c107,079$45,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,731.041855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Falcons49c104,868$51,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,487.9713843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Falcons0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Falcons50c85,684$42,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,841.9611445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked 49ers49c75,000$36,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,2503100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed 49ers51c71,524$36,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,221.2714951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked 49ers50c63,408$31,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,817.2344652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked 49ers51c60,000$30,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,6003452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed 49ers55c59,835$32,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,925.6116836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf6e…d642backed 49ers49c59,052$28,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,116.51742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed 49ers49c54,376$26,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,986.1822450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed 49ers51c50,000$25,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,5001681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+147.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc703…c3d5backed 49ers50c50,000$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked 49ers49c49,000$24,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,9905048%24 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b35…53c5backed Falcons51c48,930$24,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,954.3620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Falcons47c45,463$21,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,242.8130043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Falcons51c41,000$20,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,91010061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked 49ers50c40,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,00017454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 49ers49c38,935$19,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,852.71,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Falcons41c36,974$15,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,161.4414351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed 49ers63c34,062$21,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,657.5841947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x242e…ee63backed 49ers50c31,987$15,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,993.61353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked 49ers51c30,000$15,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,70011146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed 49ers51c30,000$15,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,7006645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Falcons1c30,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Falcons48c30,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,399.9731240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed 49ers51c30,000$15,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,579.9614342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed 49ers61c29,318$17,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,557.812138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Falcons51c29,068$14,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,824.754143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked 49ers55c27,113$15,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,080.9131848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed 49ers49c24,489$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,489.316459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0b…9f41backed Falcons42c23,464$9,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,854.681973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked 49ers49c22,305$10,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,312.6241248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed 49ers49c20,235$9,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,319.8710462.5%65 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked 49ers51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,8004944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed 49ers44c20,000$8,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,2003100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+131.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Falcons48c19,904$9,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,553.8530743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Falcons1c19,045$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4520634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed 49ers48c18,467$8,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,580.7261148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed 49ers72c17,405$12,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,923.16245.2%28 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed 49ers55c17,000$9,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,61516545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Falcons47c16,565$7,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,785.558648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Falcons52c16,451$8,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,552.6522950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed 49ers50c15,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5003979.5%31 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed 49ers50c15,000$7,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,55024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed 49ers50c15,000$7,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,57514450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x188c…c62bbacked Falcons52c14,415$7,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4962564%16 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3451…49a5backed Falcons52c14,210$7,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,389837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked 49ers76c13,300$10,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,191.955038%19 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Falcons44c11,971$5,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,254.839657.3%55 W · 41 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed 49ers51c11,111$5,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,444.3910442.3%44 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec65…cf87backed Falcons45c11,082$4,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,987.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 49ers64c10,250$6,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,665.8550242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed 49ers51c10,196$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,996.044365.1%28 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Falcons51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Falcons50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed 49ers54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,60019645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Falcons51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.9825956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed 49ers75c9,750$7,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,464.4268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed 49ers49c9,421$4,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,804.521741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Falcons45c9,062$4,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,062.7153348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed 49ers51c9,000$4,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,368.7620646.1%95 W · 111 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Falcons56c8,758$4,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,904.225137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Falcons47c8,546$3,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,987.1831350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed 49ers49c8,472$4,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,320.6223937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 49ers48c8,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,16083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed 49ers48c7,811$3,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,069.683056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d2…2280backed 49ers58c7,662$4,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,218.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked 49ers44c7,415$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,164.95246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed 49ers55c7,273$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,272.736965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed 49ers49c7,143$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,642.8611252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked 49ers50c7,040$3,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5203056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Falcons50c7,020$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5102638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed 49ers50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5005837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed 49ers49c6,742$3,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,418.3410434.6%36 W · 68 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed 49ers70c6,550$4,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,961.7327644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed 49ers51c6,407$3,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,169.5883447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1137…74e9backed Falcons36c6,350$2,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2562356.5%13 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+103.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8db6…da81backed 49ers49c6,122$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,122.458149.4%40 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Falcons23c6,091$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.22941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked 49ers50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Falcons45c5,989$2,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,664.9651352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Falcons37c5,951$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200.5628151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 49ers64c5,751$3,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,055.3920026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed 49ers50c5,673$2,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,843.052454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+52%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed 49ers70c5,149$3,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.296850%34 W · 34 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdf1…c324backed 49ers49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5502152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.