NFL · resolved market
Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x583139b557d891b6c9f3c809ad48b41f336e89b99f13158c325c49aff3160941
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 46c | 21,494$9,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,607.18 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Over | 54c | 11,111$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Over | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 15c | 9,437$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.6 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 1,707$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.78 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Over | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 46c | 943.71$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.6 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…8a9fbacked Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 54c | 638.4$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.55 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 389.47$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.31 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 18c | 290$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Over | 54c | 211.37$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 54c | 207.41$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 45c | 204.08$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 54c | 140$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Over | 54c | 91.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Over | 54c | 85.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166e…8f22backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 45.5this page
- Falcons vs. 49ers49ers won
- Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: 49ers (-1.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-4.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.