NFL · resolved market
Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf77c45cabec0f170242604d8be568f60a3010092ceaf76cd31b8b8b604ff16b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 50c | 92,271$46,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,543.39 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 50c | 86,626$43,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,400.77 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Under | 49c | 21,398$10,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,913.07 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 16,797$8,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,398.5 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 49c | 1,999$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.51 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Under | 50c | 1,966$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.99 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 1,714$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.85 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 51c | 1,672$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.84 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 50c | 163$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b3b5backed Under | 50c | 162.79$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7118…f6adbacked Over | 51c | 86.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e9…df05backed Over | 30c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 49c | 35.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Under | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 46.5this page
- Falcons vs. 49ers49ers won
- Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: 49ers (-1.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-4.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.