NFL · resolved market
Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cd3d12d6742fede1c82d782a3a398e737487147a6011b815ac9d21536ca65b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 47c | 52,056$24,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,668.17 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 53c | 39,404$21,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,330.85 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Under | 54c | 19,080$10,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,860.05 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 8,235$4,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900.55 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Over | 47c | 5,928$2,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,786.16 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 0c | 5,606$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 46c | 3,619$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.21 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 53c | 2,058$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.2 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 2,048$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.53 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 51c | 1,803$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.12 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Under | 53c | 978$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.66 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 54c | 606.38$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e1…dcf6backed Under | 53c | 580$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…e5d7backed Over | 47c | 580$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Under | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 52c | 543$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.64 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 46c | 534.87$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.04 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 510.41$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.1 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Under | 53c | 454.72$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.72 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 47c | 437.92$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.82 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 50c | 265$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 46c | 232.08$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 46c | 190$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 54c | 185$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 178$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Under | 52c | 145.83$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 47c | 127.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…d8b3backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…534cbacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed Under | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Under | 55c | 87.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 54c | 74.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe96…94d5backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…3884backed Under | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Under | 56c | 28.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…dafdbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5this page
- Falcons vs. 49ers49ers won
- Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: 49ers (-1.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-4.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.