NFL · resolved market
Spread: 49ers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4803ea0de70f2c7d9345c5b341cc8b7cd27b58a6c4ed80b0ef74d9e2cf7fac6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $444,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $543,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $444,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4259…936fbacked 49ers | 38c | 100,000$37,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62,051.84 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Falcons | 62c | 84,095$52,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,138.81 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Falcons | 62c | 84,056$52,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,103.94 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked 49ers | 41c | 74,002$30,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,610.66 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…d974backed 49ers | 38c | 23,632$8,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,651.58 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed 49ers | 38c | 23,582$8,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,650.31 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Falcons | 63c | 16,000$10,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,080 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Falcons | 53c | 8,154$4,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,347.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Falcons | 58c | 6,595$3,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,805.76 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Falcons | 62c | 6,522$4,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,043.68 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Falcons | 62c | 5,876$3,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,643.17 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Falcons | 54c | 2,604$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.31 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Falcons | 62c | 2,529$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.19 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed 49ers | 47c | 2,303$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Falcons | 1c | 2,021$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Falcons | 63c | 1,684$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.08 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Falcons | 62c | 1,500$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.18 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked 49ers | 36c | 999.99$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Falcons | 61c | 999.84$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.9 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Falcons | 60c | 598.14$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.97 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked 49ers | 38c | 315.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.79 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Falcons | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…77aebacked 49ers | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Falcons | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…501bbacked Falcons | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Falcons | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Falcons | 63c | 90.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Falcons | 62c | 87.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Falcons | 65c | 77.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed 49ers | 35c | 76.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…2bccbacked 49ers | 38c | 45.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed 49ers | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Falcons | 59c | 20.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)this page
- Falcons vs. 49ers49ers won
- Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: 49ers (-1.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-4.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.