TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1a1c…2bcc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
90
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: South American Leagues, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category South American Leagues at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT2152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jiangxi Open: Alycia Parks vs Anna Blinkovabacked Parks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaierbacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$123.32
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Alexandra Eala vs Victoria Mbokobacked Eala · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$74.8
Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Norrie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Chennai Open: Arina Rodionova vs Storm Hunterbacked Hunter · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.58
Jiangxi Open: Dominika Salkova vs Anastasia Zakharovabacked Salkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$65
Rolex Paris Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonsecabacked Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.16
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexandre Mullerbacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+137.9%+$21.6
Chennai Open: Sahaja Yamalapalli vs Priska Madelyn Nugrohobacked Yamalapalli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$53.33
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Altmaier vs Casper Ruudbacked Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.52
Chennai Open: Mai Hontama vs Storm Hunterbacked Hunter · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$31.11
Chennai Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Nikola Bartunkovabacked Bartunkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.51
Jiangxi Open: Ella Seidel vs Tamara Korpatschbacked Korpatsch · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+108.1%+$27.04
Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonsecabacked Shapovalov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.29
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Alexandra Eala vs Katie Boulterbacked Boulter · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Eudice Chong vs Suzan Lamensbacked Chong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+100%+$40
Rolex Paris Masters: Fabian Marozsan vs Arthur Rinderknechbacked Marozsan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Rolex Paris Masters: Aleksandar Vukic vs Terence Atmanebacked Vukic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$40.24
Jiangxi Open: Wushuang Zheng vs Yulia Starodubtsevabacked Zheng · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$21.91
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Altmaier vs Marcos Gironbacked Altmaier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$40.79
Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Ethan Quinnbacked Quinn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$11.21
All 21 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT1827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-45.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grizzlies vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.6
Trail Blazers vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.24
76ers vs. Wizardsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$37.69
Hornets vs. Heat: O/U 241.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$27.08
Suns vs. Jazzbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Bucks vs. Cavaliersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.8
Knicks vs. Heatbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.86
Pacers vs. Grizzliesbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Warriors vs. Trail Blazersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.47
Bucks vs. Raptorsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$28
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$10.91
Nets vs. Hornetsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.5
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.5
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$23.48
All 18 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.89
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.93
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+618.9%+$140.23
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.08
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$11.18
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+90.5%+$15.82
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 9 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+48.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Red Wings vs. Kingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$66.27
Oilers vs. Krakenbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.86
Kings vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$12.89
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)backed Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Jets vs. Flamesbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$26.02
All 5 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 27, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+95.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+76.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Werder Bremen vs. Union Berlin end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$12.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 27, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Moreirense FC vs. FC Porto end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$28.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+72.9%+$18.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Sep 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.07
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.