Asian League · resolved market
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2025-10-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbe1e55e0cf1cab1a894c88b08e9c1e3e0c14334523a6a9f1e1dc9ac11ec979d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 58c | 5,719$3,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,292.1 | 170 | 56.5%96 W · 74 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 31c | 3,345$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,291.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 51c | 2,561$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.72 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 44c | 2,470$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…17efbacked Yes | 53c | 1,046$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 52c | 861$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.28 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 56c | 661.11$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Yes | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…05c1backed Yes | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed No | 80c | 183.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…4a7abacked No | 60c | 165.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 44c | 104.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 44c | 92.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 46c | 87.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…2bccbacked Yes | 49c | 71.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd4…b75bbacked No | 51c | 67.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 45c | 66.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…638fbacked Yes | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Yes | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x998c…f0babacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…ab82backed Yes | 72c | 41.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 51c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…eb94backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2025-10-26?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. Shōnan Bellmāre end in a draw?No won
- Will Shōnan Bellmāre win on 2025-10-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.