Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Moreirense FC vs. FC Porto end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce93b9751d542f51bfc2c31bf1628806f473cfaf06e6c85c579af01901fc18c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 51c | 5,925$3,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900.97 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…4629backed Yes | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 52c | 2,489$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.25 | 464 | 54.3%252 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Yes | 41c | 1,126$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 51c | 911.52$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.79 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Yes | 34c | 863.68$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…232fbacked Yes | 60c | 771.67$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…7b38backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 62c | 493.89$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.91 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 47c | 429.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…4712backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 58c | 226.8$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.26 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 40c | 214.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 69c | 210$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 47c | 163.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 77c | 131.14$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 176 | 61.4%108 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 16c | 125.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 275 | 42.5%117 W · 158 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 62c | 121.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 34c | 118.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Yes | 16c | 110.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…1cccbacked Yes | 67c | 90.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Yes | 65c | 75.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…2bccbacked No | 56c | 65.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…30f2backed Yes | 68c | 51.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 27c | 45.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…fab2backed Yes | 36c | 39.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 44c | 33.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567b…27d7backed No | 62c | 32.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…c712backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…35e5backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbc…4496backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea4…f025backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb3…7f6bbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c7…7203backed Yes | 59c | 19.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moreirense FC vs. FC Porto end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-27?Yes won
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2025-10-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.