NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Heat: O/U 241.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01c87105c43efa7ef6b37257a6de1fa4a1e98388686981e822ba61cf9394a8c0

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Oct 28, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $124,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $160,945

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,677 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under	50c	51,851$25,982 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,981.85	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd43c…04e8backed Over	50c	48,000$24,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24,000	115	35.7%41 W · 74 L	-12.9wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Under	52c	6,787$3,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,500.24	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad4…3c1abacked Over	48c	5,555$2,666 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,888.6	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	47c	5,500$2,560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,939.99	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c15…73b3backed Under	54c	3,702$1,999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,999.08	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-3.3wins	-0.42per pick	54cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	2,276$1,086 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,190.42	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86a3…33dbbacked Under	53c	2,013$1,067 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,066.89	40	45%18 W · 22 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Over	49c	1,506$733 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$772.89	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over	47c	1,383$649 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$733.44	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Under	52c	1,381$718 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$718.12	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe127…546cbacked Over	49c	1,233$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$633.33	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	47c	1,043$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$550.14	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd5c…8ae8backed Over	50c	999$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$499.5	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Under	52c	989.58$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$514.58	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Under	51c	980.39$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	152	44.1%67 W · 85 L	-14.4wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Over	49c	971.07$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$491.07	168	37.5%63 W · 105 L	-20.6wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4403…4252backed Under	54c	740.74$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	41	63.4%26 W · 15 L	+4.1wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	46c	703.43$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$379.85	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc10…3f05backed Under	50c	553.77$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.89	96	50%48 W · 48 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x00c7…bb17backed Under	54c	463.43$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9646…3bc4backed Over	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	456	47.1%215 W · 241 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	49c	306$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.06	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Under	53c	300$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91f3…0d57backed Over	50c	224$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…715cbacked Over	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Under	52c	208.33$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.33	474	48.7%231 W · 243 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over	50c	201.65$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.83	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over	46c	150$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81	377	50.4%190 W · 187 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	50c	141.42$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.71	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over	49c	104.57$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.44	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe930…99aebacked Over	48c	104.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e62…06f9backed Over	48c	83.33$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.33	118	44.1%52 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe611…0ae4backed Under	53c	66.04$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c1…012cbacked Under	52c	60.22$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.11	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a1c…2bccbacked Over	48c	52.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.08	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-3.3wins	-0.18per pick	46cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over	48c	50.42$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.22	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb9d…b033backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02c…2cf8backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-7.7wins	-0.35per pick	62cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x902d…1f3fbacked Over	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860a…9581backed Over	47c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Over	47c	23.2$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.41	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9636…317abacked Over	49c	21$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.71	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ece…a0d6backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e8…a953backed Under	54c	18.81$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.22per pick	56cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hornets vs. Heat: O/U 241.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event