NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Heat: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6d4e28a1d054bc7b5e57257992a87c926ffdb03f9d477d9b65a4378e33d66a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Under | 53c | 6,554$3,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,451.94 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 5,665$2,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,747.52 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 5,008$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,458.93 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 52c | 4,100$2,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 3,774$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 50c | 3,254$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.27 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 47c | 2,000$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 53c | 1,833$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.7 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 1,824$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.78 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 48c | 757.05$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.55 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 52c | 661$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.28 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Over | 51c | 447.12$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.09 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 157.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Under | 52c | 108.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Under | 51c | 101.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…6f27backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef68…9cdfbacked Over | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Heat: O/U 240.5this page
- Hornets vs. HeatHeat won
- Hornets vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.