NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41dfb11406fd1f50b8a2f7704e4d3a14803776a2960674f24d5a15d7e6b024eb

Rebuilt 25 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Heat, Hornets
Resolved: Oct 29, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,770

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,697 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5139…a8dbbacked Hornets	51c	8,376$4,266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,265.82	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Heat	49c	7,718$3,782 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,936.28	478	48.1%230 W · 248 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Heat	50c	3,310$1,655 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,655	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Heat	47c	3,165$1,488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,676.99	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked Heat	47c	3,000$1,410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,590	157	45.2%71 W · 86 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hornets	53c	2,453$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300.27	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Hornets	54c	2,083$1,125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,124.82	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Hornets	51c	1,974$1,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,006.77	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hornets	50c	1,611$811 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$811.19	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Heat	49c	813.76$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$414.66	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Hornets	50c	735$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.5	841	50.3%423 W · 418 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Heat	51c	689$351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.49	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Hornets	50c	639.09$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.49	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Hornets	50c	535.83$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.92	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Hornets	46c	420$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.58	471	44.2%208 W · 263 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Hornets	54c	374.9$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.44	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Hornets	47c	319.99$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.39	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets	48c	317.73$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.33	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Heat	49c	299.99$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153	275	47.6%131 W · 144 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Hornets	50c	250$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7b3…f97cbacked Hornets	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc35a…e5d8backed Hornets	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	64	40.6%26 W · 38 L	-9.1wins	-0.14per pick	55cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Heat	49c	150$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.5	377	50.4%190 W · 187 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Heat	49c	144$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.08	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f4…7942backed Hornets	51c	101.96$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb590…15d3backed Hornets	58c	43.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	53	58.5%31 W · 22 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc95c…cef3backed Heat	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	112	58.9%66 W · 46 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Hornets	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	154	48.7%75 W · 79 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe834…6407backed Heat	50c	38.98$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.49	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Heat	55c	33$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.89	597	43.6%260 W · 337 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab24…9804backed Heat	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d2…9fe9backed Heat	53c	25.83$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.14	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3cf…3183backed Heat	54c	25.56$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.76	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hornets	46c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c0…1222backed Heat	53c	21.75$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d72…a88dbacked Heat	54c	20.37$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.37	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+24%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70de…5688backed Hornets	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf13…a49cbacked Heat	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.5wins	+0.28per pick	50cpaid	+55.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event