TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$373,665
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$179,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $373,665 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes0c66,008$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.68206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes7c18,668$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.217322.5%39 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes4c18,560$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.722119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes1c13,836$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6462713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes1c13,353$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3845511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes5c8,541$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.2854122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f8…4d62backed Yes20c7,000$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,39030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes10c5,651$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.827966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c5,532$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.21,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1e6…618dbacked Yes3c5,295$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.88520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+442.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes2c4,746$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.72639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes1c4,500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281347.5%10 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c4,345$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.151,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes7c4,250$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.944816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c4,239$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.192,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes5c4,207$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.623914.2%34 W · 205 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes7c3,500$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.553817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes3c3,497$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.122,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes3c2,625$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.181159.6%11 W · 104 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x407a…d0d3backed Yes4c2,604$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.170%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc576…747abacked Yes20c2,529$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c2,111$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6999619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes5c2,075$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1784616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes3c1,735$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6041017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes6c1,647$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100588.6%5 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes1c1,512$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes15c1,332$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.0866222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes2c1,220$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.857524%18 W · 57 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes9c1,183$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0938811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0104…530ebacked Yes6c1,159$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes3c979.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.65588.6%5 W · 53 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+67.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes2c956.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2673215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes7c822.47$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5416417.1%28 W · 136 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes2c820.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023017%39 W · 191 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b56…80ddbacked Yes21c698.08$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.981216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-73.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes7c695$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1429331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes19c663.43$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9728113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf61…2ed5backed Yes6c629.41$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.36119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x105d…7cb1backed Yes4c579.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes12c568.26$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.954022.5%9 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb8…dafdbacked Yes4c567.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+70.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes9c566.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4813818.8%26 W · 112 L-0.3wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes9c528.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013317.3%23 W · 110 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd476…ff0ebacked Yes9c524.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes6c524.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.943027%116 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c0…f0d2backed Yes3c500.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.652133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+56.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05ec…7158backed Yes24c412.31$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991520%3 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes3c411.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32258%2 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes9c400$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ac…dc51backed Yes9c400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+71.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc950…ad4ebacked Yes16c396.33$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.763119.4%6 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aac…7b50backed Yes5c380.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9990%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa881…8b3ebacked Yes8c347.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292119%4 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-47.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b64…dab3backed Yes8c312$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.58924.7%22 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes6c296.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.813713.5%5 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc8…1461backed Yes11c270.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.73156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac45…ea33backed Yes21c263.24$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x219a…ecaabacked Yes7c257.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x676e…eb0cbacked Yes16c229.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-80.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2d4…36dbbacked Yes10c209.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3068…cbf5backed Yes8c202.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+48.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0850…74c5backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.582821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d6…f321backed Yes14c191$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.18714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No71c184.25$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2316969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes9c160$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.719219.6%18 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe3…0a16backed Yes11c141.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77e3…ceb0backed No75c126$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes13c124$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6320717.4%36 W · 171 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes11c123$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.585198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes22c119.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8343126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes20c112.24$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229417%16 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.91127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe13…8b9cbacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0878…8757backed Yes21c96.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2878811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacb8…aa4fbacked Yes25c79.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e37…5343backed Yes24c70$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.74812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a1c…2bccbacked Yes22c67.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x932f…aeb6backed Yes19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0152…1dc9backed No78c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.