TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$215,879
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,845

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,879 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes0c15,000$20 inLost-$205325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes2c13,183$263 inLost-$263.34816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Yes1c8,594$100 inLost-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes1c2,363$16 inLost-$15.751471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+133.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c1,967$18 inLost-$18.491,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c1,858$27 inLost-$27.462,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39b…7364backed Yes1c1,733$19 inLost-$1950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes2c1,610$30 inLost-$3045911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c1,572$14 inLost-$14.121,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes1c1,313$17 inLost-$17.071715.3%9 W · 162 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes4c1,308$48 inLost-$47.9223914.2%34 W · 205 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes1c1,205$12 inLost-$11.91159.6%11 W · 104 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes5c1,180$53 inLost-$53.1541017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdab4…5dbabacked Yes1c1,092$13 inLost-$12.642015%3 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18e3…7065backed Yes2c1,061$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdde…37abbacked Yes2c900$15 inLost-$15.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c874.9$12 inLost-$11.8199619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd44…f336backed Yes1c824.61$11 inLost-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95ec…65c4backed Yes2c552.8$13 inLost-$13250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes3c477.97$13 inLost-$1316417.1%28 W · 136 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5947…8bdabacked Yes3c457.66$15 inLost-$153013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc8…1461backed Yes7c426.54$30 inLost-$30156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23e0…adc0backed Yes4c305.19$11 inLost-$111816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-47.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x780b…c90dbacked Yes8c122.74$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.