Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x111ac63ac7f9b8fbba0fa65ab463e4e0f9f7b8493bcfe1ceff2a2b9b803c1d5b

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $273,330
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $163,016

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,330 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes	0c	117,969$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.97	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0104…530ebacked Yes	0c	19,679$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	17,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	8,000$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	6,042$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.12	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	2c	4,000$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.25	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	6c	2,799$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.09	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	2,367$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.16	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	12c	1,520$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.26	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	5c	1,500$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.07	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	1,475$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.29	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes	6c	1,141$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.09	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48aa…54e5backed Yes	9c	1,131$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	6c	851.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes	14c	783.13$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.75	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	12c	604.34$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	5c	574.81$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.51	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39b…7364backed Yes	6c	504.56$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	5c	481.28$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.22	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeef…d4fbbacked Yes	9c	422.22$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	5c	405.84$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.85	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	9c	379.52$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.76	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aac…7b50backed Yes	6c	359.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	5c	354.84$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.93	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Yes	6c	342.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	303.63$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	9c	274.73$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d7…def8backed Yes	7c	256$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.65	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+52.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b3…a00cbacked Yes	6c	236.16$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd44…f336backed Yes	9c	228.16$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	6c	223$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.29	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58fc…18a6backed Yes	7c	212.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	17cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	12c	130.15$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.04	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcf1…1695backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	58	22.4%13 W · 45 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event