Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8920bfa2ea26de48e3de40bbfcb5530cde7df7cfe9c541dd2d72f19c13b8551

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 21, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $327,698
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $184,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,698 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	55,678$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.98	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	12,557$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.84	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	5c	12,556$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$584.87	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	5c	8,202$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.61	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	21c	7,602$1,592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,592.34	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	9c	6,132$558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.42	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadc9…e112backed Yes	1c	4,781$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19b3…88edbacked Yes	23c	4,494$1,026 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,026.25	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	14c	3,960$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.2	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	25c	3,171$789 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$788.84	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,081$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.85	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	27c	2,945$791 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$790.84	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	13c	2,791$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.93	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes	1c	2,570$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	184	12%22 W · 162 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes	20c	2,322$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-5.3wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	1c	2,281$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	3c	2,245$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.81	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	6c	2,082$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.86	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	6c	2,061$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.56	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	1,756$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.25	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c2…a673backed Yes	1c	1,470$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	2c	1,435$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.89	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	5c	1,385$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.94	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	1,369$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.39	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	11c	1,362$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.11	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	7c	1,334$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.64	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x790e…989bbacked Yes	2c	1,210$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.58	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	34c	1,188$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcddc…63edbacked Yes	2c	1,167$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+301.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	18c	1,131$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.17	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	3c	1,130$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.6	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x801c…a025backed Yes	23c	1,045$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.66	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	19c	1,034$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.79	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	21c	1,005$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes	33c	1,000$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	18c	878.28$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.29	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	24c	770$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.56	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	26c	753.3$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.95	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	13c	745.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	6c	742.08$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	22c	717.12$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.15	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	7c	634.12$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.94	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64c3…d720backed Yes	17c	605.63$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x219a…ecaabacked Yes	17c	578.39$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20f3…0ce0backed Yes	18c	547.61$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…e965backed Yes	27c	528.51$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes	9c	527.64$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.51	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe11e…ff89backed Yes	16c	500$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc4…701abacked Yes	15c	500$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+117.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8667…8e0bbacked Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No	79c	457.69$361 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.76	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1497…ca16backed Yes	16c	397.46$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	19c	355.08$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.96	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9018…090fbacked Yes	31c	347.96$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ec…7158backed Yes	29c	336.6$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0104…530ebacked Yes	30c	334.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc4…86acbacked Yes	31c	300$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.94	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	70c	292.28$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.02	315	65.1%205 W · 110 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes	16c	279.99$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.68	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	18c	275$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.1	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	17c	274.25$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.56	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb59f…dbedbacked Yes	15c	266.57$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes	8c	242.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	27c	238.04$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	17c	230.31$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb94f…3e73backed Yes	17c	219.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.01	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+142.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x841f…8c4bbacked Yes	18c	200.03$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.1	10	20%2 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes	18c	200$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0850…74c5backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1de…85d9backed Yes	21c	200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.8	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	22c	200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ec7…7a26backed Yes	17c	176.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x392a…6bbabacked Yes	29c	174.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23b4…80efbacked Yes	27c	170.5$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.91	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes	19c	170$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf469…7aa9backed Yes	27c	168.48$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.25	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-52%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	17c	167.19$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.22	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes	18c	160.4$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.88	50	14%7 W · 43 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5992…40bfbacked Yes	26c	157.94$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.46	80	26.3%21 W · 59 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes	32c	156.77$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	92	29.3%27 W · 65 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	26c	144.56$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.23	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdab4…5dbabacked Yes	17c	140$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.44	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	12c	137.19$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.09	797	35.9%286 W · 511 L	-34.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes	15c	134.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	94	17%16 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d4…36dbbacked Yes	30c	133.55$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-33%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	12c	130$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.65	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x17f9…705ebacked Yes	27c	127.34$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	16c	124.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb2…deddbacked Yes	27c	119$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.86	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+52.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75de…d206backed Yes	18c	112.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+103.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93f1…2b51backed Yes	19c	112.9$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbe5…18d8backed Yes	18c	112.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcc8…1461backed Yes	26c	111.12$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.97	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	17cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fae…08bfbacked Yes	11c	110$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe13…8b9cbacked Yes	18c	109$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68e5…f3d3backed Yes	29c	108.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.33	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event