Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10f8faa2e34f8a0bd9b566385644a5471a06b936eac64d887f50ba6c7021be9a

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 20, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $406,919
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $220,648

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $406,919 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	43,197$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.12	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	40,649$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.04	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	39,998$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	29,296$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.89	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	18,435$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.46	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,054$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.97	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9018…090fbacked Yes	2c	6,384$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.03	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	6,233$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.06	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes	2c	5,329$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.14	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	2c	4,525$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	21c	4,208$876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876.16	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb61…bd7fbacked Yes	0c	3,944$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes	21c	3,612$764 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$763.59	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	3,487$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.61	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,225$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.86	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	2,689$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.11	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	7c	2,673$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.23	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	12c	2,603$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.15	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	20c	2,300$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.77	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	1c	1,948$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	2c	1,617$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	15c	1,364$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.68	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd948…b595backed Yes	2c	1,270$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0104…530ebacked Yes	2c	1,227$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	23c	1,204$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb7…94c8backed Yes	1c	1,172$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+2.0wins	+0.13per pick	14cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	23c	1,061$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2dc…3f6abacked Yes	2c	1,007$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8667…8e0bbacked Yes	19c	1,000$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.05	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7403…8eb5backed Yes	18c	999.99$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9360…03e6backed Yes	1c	993.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	9c	884.99$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.6	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	19c	884.21$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6141…6cfdbacked Yes	1c	820.93$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.84	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x503c…f6b6backed Yes	1c	802.65$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	3c	797.39$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.54	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	15c	670$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.5	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	12c	667.89$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.63	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	16c	636.69$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes	16c	636.34$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.6	50	14%7 W · 43 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	9c	571.21$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.94	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe13…8b9cbacked Yes	21c	479.62$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.07	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542f…916abacked Yes	20c	456.12$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	7c	445.16$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.72	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	78c	445$346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.95	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58fc…18a6backed Yes	19c	442.23$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	17cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	24c	437.29$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.37	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	9c	429$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.09	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5377…e6dabacked Yes	24c	413.47$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42ed…5ebabacked Yes	24c	412.66$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5438…0bd6backed Yes	22c	390$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.9	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce64…857dbacked No	79c	363$287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.23	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x801c…a025backed Yes	11c	355.69$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb885…4b0dbacked Yes	10c	329$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.1	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe410…ce89backed No	79c	320.53$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.31	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d4…36dbbacked Yes	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-33%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	10c	310$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.23	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc950…ad4ebacked Yes	17c	304.4$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.53	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes	22c	300$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdab4…5dbabacked Yes	17c	299$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.67	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	278.82$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.27	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed No	78c	276$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.72	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f9…705ebacked Yes	20c	275$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes	22c	270$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.4	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d47…d9bfbacked Yes	11c	269.04$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa881…8b3ebacked Yes	22c	230.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…e965backed Yes	11c	224.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	24c	211.46$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4312…a388backed Yes	24c	204.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	24c	203$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.72	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1de…85d9backed Yes	12c	200.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb0…3b23backed Yes	28c	200.26$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.49	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x841f…8c4bbacked Yes	12c	200.08$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.9	10	20%2 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0850…74c5backed Yes	28c	200$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c1a…adb7backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x62d8…afccbacked Yes	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	28cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d4…621abacked Yes	6c	197.19$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+53.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b4…80efbacked Yes	9c	195.1$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.92	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeeef…d4fbbacked Yes	22c	192.89$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.77	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x105d…7cb1backed Yes	10c	187.74$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.31	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x018c…448abacked Yes	10c	186.84$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48aa…54e5backed Yes	11c	180.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	11c	178.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe86c…10f3backed Yes	10c	178.2$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.82	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b48…72f1backed Yes	22c	176.36$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.52	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf894…352fbacked Yes	10c	167$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.43	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	17c	155$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.65	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d7…def8backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+52.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23e2…8b61backed Yes	22c	140$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc2…35e1backed Yes	19c	140$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd188…3b4abacked Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd14c…7647backed No	77c	130$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.9	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf09b…5ad6backed No	77c	127$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.21	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65d0…ef39backed No	79c	126.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.58	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbe5…18d8backed Yes	12c	125.92$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.11	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b3…a00cbacked Yes	10c	125.3$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.33	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6742…2ab7backed Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5992…40bfbacked Yes	16c	122.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	80	26.3%21 W · 59 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcc8…1461backed Yes	26c	115.38$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	17cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18b8…02c6backed No	78c	106$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.32	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event