TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$327,403
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$211,875

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,403 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes0c141,071$332 inLost-$332.148206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes2c45,414$726 inLost-$726.2822119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c7,385$39 inLost-$38.991,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,123$61 inLost-$60.732,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes2c4,208$73 inLost-$73.1623914.2%34 W · 205 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes1c3,724$20 inLost-$19.575198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x407a…d0d3backed Yes3c3,058$99 inLost-$99.170%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5142…4eedbacked Yes7c3,028$198 inLost-$198.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c2,465$28 inLost-$27.8599619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c2,171$20 inLost-$19.542,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcddc…63edbacked Yes1c2,014$11 inLost-$11.192520%5 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+301.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes1c1,545$17 inLost-$17.183119.4%6 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+109.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes2c1,150$25 inLost-$2538811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes2c1,000$15 inLost-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes2c810$16 inLost-$16.2262713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd25d…6088backed Yes2c700$12 inLost-$12.091816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c695.26$11 inLost-$11.061,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x068e…6f16backed Yes3c525.54$15 inLost-$14.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes2c500$10 inLost-$101816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+236.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce2d…84d7backed Yes4c478.48$18 inLost-$17.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No78c166.43$130 inWon+$36.5823464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.