Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85a859b7e8c653ccb53f1b8673dcb90113d37338232a1ee1dd1cede237265961

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 21, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $328,241
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $180,326

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,241 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	24,896$605 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$604.63	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	9c	19,312$1,797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,797.41	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	13c	10,880$1,456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,456.49	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	33c	8,805$2,903 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,902.65	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	7,060$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.85	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	12c	6,743$781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780.7	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	6,106$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.54	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	4,885$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.1	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	17c	4,778$819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819.49	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d50…8eebbacked Yes	0c	4,618$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	6c	4,605$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.02	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	10c	4,252$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.08	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	4c	4,022$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.64	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	3,973$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.02	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	19c	3,865$744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$744.47	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	0c	3,200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes	7c	3,000$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	14c	2,942$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.99	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	2,864$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.38	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	5c	2,732$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.94	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	19c	2,162$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.78	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	5c	1,818$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.22	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes	11c	1,795$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.94	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	37c	1,644$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.42	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	2c	1,625$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.63	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ec…7158backed Yes	7c	1,497$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes	45c	1,435$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-5.3wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	7c	1,391$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	29c	1,361$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.03	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	13c	1,280$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.03	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8b99backed Yes	1c	1,254$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	3c	1,248$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.27	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,213$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes	34c	1,158$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.89	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe11e…ff89backed Yes	3c	1,150$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	3c	1,104$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.99	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b62…ad6cbacked Yes	5c	1,061$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.13	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes	23c	1,034$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.49	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	23c	1,028$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.43	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	4c	1,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.81	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	4c	1,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked No	70c	1,000$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	29c	945.18$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.36	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x790e…989bbacked Yes	51c	861$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.69	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	799.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b3…88edbacked Yes	7c	784.46$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.88	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	9c	770.07$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.37	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	50c	674.01$339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$334.55	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	4c	646.94$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.28	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb630…f433backed Yes	47c	606.32$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	62cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x801c…a025backed Yes	4c	594.91$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.29	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	14c	550.73$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.66	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	40c	531.44$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x051e…dae5backed Yes	4c	523.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39b…7364backed Yes	8c	476.19$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	468.53$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	13c	458.29$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf80…4542backed Yes	8c	455.13$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.58	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…ea33backed Yes	24c	449.89$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.4	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes	27c	412.64$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	64	31.3%20 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x392a…6bbabacked Yes	32c	410.9$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x219a…ecaabacked Yes	16c	396.89$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3814…f0bfbacked No	70c	365.39$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.88	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	71cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a0f…37babacked Yes	21c	356.44$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.3	65	35.4%23 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	14c	350$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.95	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	53c	349.75$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.4	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf61…2ed5backed Yes	6c	341.78$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.05	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b64…dab3backed Yes	46c	312$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0850…74c5backed Yes	9c	300.2$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.77	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	7c	299.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75de…d206backed Yes	7c	286.52$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+103.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d4…36dbbacked Yes	32c	280.28$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-33%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50df…1f07backed Yes	29c	277.09$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81be…2d58backed Yes	16c	275.73$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcbe5…18d8backed Yes	13c	265.98$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.44	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb0…3b23backed Yes	23c	256.74$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.78	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ba…0f20backed No	56c	255.85$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.85	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.26per pick	49cpaid	+49.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	33c	250$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.24	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d8…5f22backed Yes	34c	250$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+74.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5982…fd3ebacked Yes	11c	213.64$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	5c	204.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff6a…881cbacked Yes	49c	204.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1de…85d9backed Yes	6c	201.04$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc37c…ba27backed Yes	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce72…bfefbacked No	45c	200$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.02	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd991…a053backed Yes	55c	200$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	184	12%22 W · 162 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x841f…8c4bbacked Yes	9c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	10	20%2 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe415…eec9backed Yes	37c	196.02$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.92	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a1…0b00backed Yes	48c	183.69$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa114…fdadbacked Yes	56c	180.16$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b56…0a28backed Yes	42c	179.99$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.6	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe48e…9c77backed Yes	50c	178.39$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked No	55c	177.2$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.38	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1529…1171backed Yes	6c	172.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd476…ff0ebacked Yes	45c	172.18$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.48	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ed…9f1dbacked Yes	38c	171.97$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa881…8b3ebacked Yes	21c	160.71$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.25	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	31c	157.79$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.65	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event