Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdf2ece538d1f74cbdee7f29a9c60da4e9418b3066a991f1a2572bb00ad60efd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $396,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 127,694$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.69 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 25,279$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.07 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 18,764$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9018…090fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 4c | 9,000$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,613$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 6,211$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.36 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…b595backed Yes | 1c | 5,918$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 5c | 4,400$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.35 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 14c | 4,218$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.09 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,023$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 3c | 3,853$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 3,512$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.51 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0104…530ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,467$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,990$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 11c | 2,432$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.51 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb7…94c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,423$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 25c | 2,300$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.21 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…3f6abacked Yes | 1c | 2,247$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 11c | 1,682$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.18 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f3afbacked Yes | 21c | 1,183$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.73 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 6c | 1,119$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 26c | 1,090$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes | 10c | 1,080$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 25c | 1,021$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.08 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 23c | 1,001$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…5dbabacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8667…8e0bbacked Yes | 16c | 999.67$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.93 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…54e5backed Yes | 2c | 982.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…c285backed Yes | 1c | 936.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…35e1backed Yes | 26c | 910.06$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…4060backed Yes | 1c | 904.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 4c | 873$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 696.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9994…03ddbacked Yes | 1c | 676.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 112 | 4.5%5 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…8b9cbacked Yes | 24c | 613$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.12 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 24c | 552.85$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.93 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…6d77backed Yes | 2c | 489.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x471e…b99abacked Yes | 2c | 436.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb30b…31c2backed Yes | 9c | 409.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 28c | 363.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e0…adc0backed Yes | 27c | 352.26$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes | 22c | 345.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 124 | 16.1%20 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 12c | 339$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 78c | 336.2$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 14c | 320$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd837…f1b7backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…ea54backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…80efbacked Yes | 25c | 285.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes | 19c | 263$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…d9bfbacked Yes | 8c | 254$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…63a2backed Yes | 24c | 250.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 19c | 250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeef…d4fbbacked Yes | 24c | 224.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0850…74c5backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb0…3b23backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…7abcbacked Yes | 26c | 191.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58fc…18a6backed Yes | 16c | 175.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…afccbacked Yes | 26c | 172.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…72f1backed Yes | 23c | 171.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 12c | 162.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…4615backed Yes | 13c | 155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…ad4ebacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 23c | 132.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…1810backed Yes | 21c | 131$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…8b61backed Yes | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 27c | 127.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e5…25f5backed No | 76c | 111.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…d574backed Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…08bfbacked Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…76babacked Yes | 26c | 105.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b8…02c6backed No | 75c | 102.04$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 100.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…1695backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…0324backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd06…923dbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…fe63backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…cbe1backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…b1a7backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…40bfbacked Yes | 23c | 91.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82d…a7abbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…ce6fbacked Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5d…bf0abacked Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…8b3ebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf894…352fbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb8…aa4fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…d823backed Yes | 26c | 76.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812e…ec15backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…5e50backed Yes | 26c | 61.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 164 | 17.1%28 W · 136 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…97e2backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…bd6abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…c181backed Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba3…e659backed Yes | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…4986backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.