TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$396,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$227,565

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,771 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes0c127,694$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.69462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes0c25,279$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.075325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes0c18,764$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.768206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9018…090fbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes4c9,000$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3254816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes0c8,613$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.737828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes3c6,211$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.361,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd948…b595backed Yes1c5,918$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes5c4,400$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.3530310.9%33 W · 270 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes14c4,218$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.0923914.2%34 W · 205 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c4,023$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.061,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes3c3,853$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6473215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes15c3,512$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.512,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0104…530ebacked Yes1c3,467$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.141118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes2c2,990$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.331715.3%9 W · 162 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes11c2,432$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.5168615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb7…94c8backed Yes1c2,423$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151526.7%4 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick14cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes25c2,300$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.2145911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2dc…3f6abacked Yes1c2,247$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes11c1,682$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.1841017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes21c1,183$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.732222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes6c1,119$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.31159.6%11 W · 104 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes26c1,090$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28638811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes10c1,080$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105813.8%8 W · 50 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes25c1,021$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.0828113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes23c1,001$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23211220.5%23 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25045715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdab4…5dbabacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502015%3 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8667…8e0bbacked Yes16c999.67$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.932218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48aa…54e5backed Yes2c982.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x132c…c285backed Yes1c936.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc2…35e1backed Yes26c910.06$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb80d…4060backed Yes1c904.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes4c873$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.815198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c696.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0599619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes1c676.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101124.5%5 W · 107 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-67.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe13…8b9cbacked Yes24c613$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.123636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes24c552.85$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.9362713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13024873%181 W · 67 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4969…6d77backed Yes2c489.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.041040%4 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+162.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes2c436.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.34818.8%9 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb30b…31c2backed Yes9c409.55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+111.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5377…e6dabacked Yes28c363.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23e0…adc0backed Yes27c352.26$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-47.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes22c345.45$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7612416.1%20 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes12c339$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4234017.1%58 W · 282 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No78c336.2$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5718163%114 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes14c320$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.82097.7%16 W · 193 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd837…f1b7backed Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23b4…80efbacked Yes25c285.14$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.54922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-64.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes19c263$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.973716.2%6 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d47…d9bfbacked Yes8c254$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes24c250.4$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.644022.5%9 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes19c250$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.557222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeef…d4fbbacked Yes24c224.61$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54160%0 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0850…74c5backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb0…3b23backed Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes26c191.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506119.7%12 W · 49 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x58fc…18a6backed Yes16c175.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-69.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62d8…afccbacked Yes26c172.07$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.94812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-80.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b48…72f1backed Yes23c171.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes12c162.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205014%7 W · 43 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes13c155$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.946417.2%11 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc950…ad4ebacked Yes25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.53119.4%6 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes17c147.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259417%16 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes23c132.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3024618.7%46 W · 200 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1804…1810backed Yes21c131$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.517921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23e2…8b61backed Yes24c130$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes11c128$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0878811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes27c127.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3541718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e5…25f5backed No76c111.97$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.971241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78c3…d574backed Yes26c110$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fae…08bfbacked Yes12c110$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.22520%5 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+46.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…76babacked Yes26c105.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.43728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-56.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18b8…02c6backed No75c102.04$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c100.2$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0551845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcf1…1695backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265822.4%13 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1143027%116 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e5…0324backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd06…923dbacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277821.8%17 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52c7…cbe1backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c0…b1a7backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5992…40bfbacked Yes23c91.3$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218026.3%21 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe82d…a7abbacked Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3449…ce6fbacked Yes24c90$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5d…bf0abacked Yes24c90$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa881…8b3ebacked Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202119%4 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-47.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf894…352fbacked Yes27c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-69.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb8…aa4fbacked Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c6…d823backed Yes26c76.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-49.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x812e…ec15backed Yes25c75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5638…5e50backed Yes26c61.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164117.1%7 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked No73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.216417.1%28 W · 136 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc56b…97e2backed No76c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f4…bd6abacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce39…c181backed Yes26c57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.826921.7%15 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeba3…e659backed Yes23c56.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0770…4986backed No78c51.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.