Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96be5d1b314b58e5b902510376819b164d94d8ec05507c9c779dd08e4f2eca0c

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 21, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $277,685
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $144,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,685 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	36,608$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.87	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	2c	27,289$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.28	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	0c	16,771$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.02	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	3c	11,611$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.97	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	9,718$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.7	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	5,185$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.97	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	4c	4,207$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.63	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,227$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.37	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x407a…d0d3backed Yes	3c	3,074$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.1	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,252$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.41	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	2,145$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.34	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	3c	1,778$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.41	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	1c	1,698$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	1c	1,565$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.25	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	+3.9wins	+0.13per pick	7cpaid	+109.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,542$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.53	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	3c	1,320$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.84	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa13…f778backed Yes	3c	1,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	957.3$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.14	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x841f…8c4bbacked Yes	3c	900.56$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.28	10	20%2 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd25d…6088backed Yes	3c	700$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	3c	692.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	600$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.96	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+236.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05ec…7158backed Yes	13c	371.4$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	6c	368.03$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.3	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b56…80ddbacked Yes	5c	350$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.09	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes	8c	349.91$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.43	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…ea33backed Yes	7c	278.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x219a…ecaabacked Yes	7c	239.96$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x676e…eb0cbacked Yes	5c	236.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17f9…705ebacked Yes	7c	183.44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ed…9f1dbacked Yes	7c	138$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event