Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c177c932bac4e666ac4a7d1b9ebf2dcb198a5d7c47b082c6f4220f41341a3ea

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $224,506
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $114,201

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,506 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	29,707$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.1	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	19,848$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,101$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0104…530ebacked Yes	1c	8,355$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	6,993$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.63	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	11c	6,000$644 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$644	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	12c	5,000$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620.44	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	13c	4,228$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.88	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	3,518$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	13c	3,185$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.09	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b8…db23backed Yes	0c	3,167$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	6c	3,106$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.09	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	+3.9wins	+0.13per pick	7cpaid	+109.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	2,645$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.57	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcddc…63edbacked Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+301.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	20c	2,300$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.48	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb7…94c8backed Yes	2c	2,115$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+2.0wins	+0.13per pick	14cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	77c	1,891$1,464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$426.56	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	20c	1,075$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.04	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	5c	1,065$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	24c	1,000$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.66	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe13…8b9cbacked Yes	19c	804.14$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.71	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	22c	801.81$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.02	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	4c	630$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.18	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8667…8e0bbacked Yes	12c	629.22$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.62	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	13c	613.26$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.22	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1804…1810backed Yes	20c	600.51$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.1	79	21.5%17 W · 62 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes	22c	524.22$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.6	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	15c	500.13$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.02	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	22c	483.4$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.35	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48aa…54e5backed Yes	24c	421.21$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes	12c	415$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.8	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39b…7364backed Yes	23c	346.52$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.74	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeef…d4fbbacked Yes	19c	341.87$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	325$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.65	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdab4…5dbabacked Yes	14c	293.42$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.13	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	19c	258.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	18c	252.5$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.28	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…76babacked Yes	19c	231.95$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	22c	228.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x58fc…18a6backed Yes	9c	216.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	17cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes	16c	200$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.85	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb0…3b23backed Yes	16c	200$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.84	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc950…ad4ebacked Yes	23c	200$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.4	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23e0…adc0backed Yes	25c	196.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x819f…61edbacked Yes	26c	195.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	20c	178.41$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d8…afccbacked Yes	26c	175.1$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.35	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	28cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23b4…80efbacked Yes	24c	139$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes	11c	137.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	94	17%16 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23e2…8b61backed Yes	24c	130$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.68	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	21c	126.33$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.78	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	19c	115.08$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.96	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf1…1695backed Yes	26c	100$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.77	58	22.4%13 W · 45 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8433…5196backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e5…0324backed Yes	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	78	21.8%17 W · 61 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5947…8bdabacked Yes	25c	99.73$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes	22c	92.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9d…7ad0backed Yes	21c	86.74$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86aa…a85bbacked Yes	24c	82.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf894…352fbacked Yes	24c	80$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5d…bf0abacked Yes	25c	79.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.67	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f74…5c44backed Yes	25c	78.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb8…aa4fbacked Yes	27c	75.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb2…2086backed Yes	18c	70$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.36	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.29per pick	21cpaid	+113.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c7…235cbacked Yes	20c	57.79$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…c181backed Yes	24c	57$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.49	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No	77c	55.1$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.69	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b3…a00cbacked Yes	19c	51.64$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes	24c	51.02$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa59e…06edbacked Yes	21c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	49	22.4%11 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391f…cf8dbacked Yes	23c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	-5.3wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No	79c	49.28$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.42	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event