TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$396,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$358,348

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,233 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6964…ef53backed Yes60c26,672$16,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,666.366222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes16c11,450$1,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,650.9622119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No23c8,498$1,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,971.4329331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No12c6,849$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.645611.6%53 W · 403 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes29c6,648$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,727.9523914.2%34 W · 205 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes75c5,287$3,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.516248.4%30 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1e6…618dbacked Yes4c4,994$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,809.46520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+442.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No72c4,362$3,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,123.0518163%114 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6349…2a82backed No0c4,200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+76%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes11c3,743$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,335.28206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes13c3,127$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,734.012,57613.2%339 W · 2,237 L+4.4wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No3c3,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes68c2,816$1,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.9728534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes29c2,525$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,805.13588.6%5 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No35c2,350$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.5116969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes28c2,217$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.2754722.9%125 W · 422 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes15c2,044$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728.5717322.5%39 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb27c…21d5backed Yes61c1,965$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc576…747abacked Yes32c1,962$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes27c1,890$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388.228113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes6c1,765$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.861471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+133.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b7e…79e5backed Yes79c1,762$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.171330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No8c1,750$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+140.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No32c1,666$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.2523464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes8c1,540$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.621,7997.4%133 W · 1,666 L-24.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcddc…63edbacked Yes1c1,535$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,514.892520%5 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+301.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Yes60c1,492$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.543732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+83.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes38c1,458$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.456119.7%12 W · 49 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes3c1,396$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.524816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No3c1,375$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.234638.2%38 W · 425 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes21c1,332$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.818211%9 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes79c1,223$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.1389910.2%92 W · 807 L-3.9wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes23c1,221$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.556124.6%15 W · 46 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes33c1,135$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.3211220.5%23 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes65c1,058$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.585240.4%21 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No15c1,039$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1241017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes11c1,037$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.338811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c1,025$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.881,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x790e…989bbacked Yes25c1,011$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.676722.4%15 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23045715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfe…5f1ebacked Yes6c996$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9381100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,617.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62d8…afccbacked Yes64c981.91$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.82812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-80.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes53c960.01$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.956431.3%20 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39b…7364backed No9c913.83$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes39c853.83$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.835813.8%8 W · 50 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x304d…07f1backed No71c829.34$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.993342.4%14 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3601…cd3fbacked Yes73c827.76$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes30c786.39$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.794022.5%9 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea9…a10bbacked Yes71c785.33$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.491915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes16c780.95$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.6420717.4%36 W · 171 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes16c770.41$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.067524%18 W · 57 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58d8…5f22backed Yes29c750$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+74.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No42c690.51$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.111710.3%12 W · 105 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes5c600$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.44710.6%5 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99ef…2dadbacked Yes34c540.87$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.231526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes15c535.21$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.21258%2 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes50c535.16$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.7915435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes65c519.5$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.7543933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05ec…7158backed Yes17c512.74$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.641520%3 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x801c…a025backed Yes32c510.26$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.265211.5%6 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes69c508.29$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.6634017.1%58 W · 282 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes44c506.23$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.2724618.7%46 W · 200 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes33c487.72$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.5165823.3%153 W · 505 L+1.8wins0.00per pick23cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20f3…0ce0backed Yes28c473.68$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.68425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x77d8…1cdfbacked Yes70c427.14$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked Yes77c417.45$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.452123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes28c377.89$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.84818.8%9 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a1…0b00backed Yes47c366.49$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.51225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes64c343.3$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.33225%8 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2bd…637dbacked Yes68c317.65$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes24c317.32$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.329417%16 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b56…0a28backed Yes61c313.28$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.842528%7 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes8c300$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2773713.5%5 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18b8…02c6backed No54c299.98$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.71650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No71c291.11$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.3550319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac45…ea33backed Yes40c284.57$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.571315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x687a…25eabacked Yes59c284.14$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.51118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-68.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3667…75ffbacked Yes66c275$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e1…0805backed Yes74c267.28$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-71.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa114…fdadbacked Yes66c265.98$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.121414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc950…ad4ebacked Yes21c260.79$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.243119.4%6 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x219a…ecaabacked Yes13c253.85$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.851315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3814…f0bfbacked No70c242.76$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.89683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x676e…eb0cbacked Yes32c237.9$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.91166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-80.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19b3…88edbacked Yes38c233.77$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.572020%4 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb94f…3e73backed Yes64c233.23$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+142.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdab4…5dbabacked Yes12c231.94$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.232015%3 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58cc…2296backed Yes65c230.91$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.91250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes45c224.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.051717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes29c220.8$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.6213011.5%15 W · 115 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes53c220$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.869319.4%18 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbe5…18d8backed Yes9c215.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.872133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0878…8757backed Yes27c210.98$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.98520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ed…9f1dbacked Yes32c206.15$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.151625%4 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c204.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.582,1813.9%85 W · 2,096 L+4.7wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75de…d206backed Yes10c203.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.93520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+103.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d4…36dbbacked Yes46c200.34$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.331520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x841f…8c4bbacked Yes9c200.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.631020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid+34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0850…74c5backed Yes10c200.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.312821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1de…85d9backed Yes9c200.02$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.721526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+41.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.