Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x278ed09748cc2021cdd583c0611b575125991156b646fc7e0b14ef62c198dd7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $396,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $358,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 60c | 26,672$16,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,666.3 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 16c | 11,450$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,650.96 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 23c | 8,498$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.43 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 12c | 6,849$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.6 | 456 | 11.6%53 W · 403 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 29c | 6,648$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,727.95 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 75c | 5,287$3,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.51 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…618dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,994$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,809.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +442.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 72c | 4,362$3,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,123.05 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…2a82backed No | 0c | 4,200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +76%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 11c | 3,743$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,335.2 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 3,127$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,734.01 | 2,576 | 13.2%339 W · 2,237 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 3c | 3,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 68c | 2,816$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.97 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 29c | 2,525$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.13 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 35c | 2,350$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.51 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 28c | 2,217$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.27 | 547 | 22.9%125 W · 422 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes | 15c | 2,044$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.57 | 173 | 22.5%39 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27c…21d5backed Yes | 61c | 1,965$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…747abacked Yes | 32c | 1,962$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 27c | 1,890$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.2 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,765$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.86 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…79e5backed Yes | 79c | 1,762$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.17 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 8c | 1,750$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 32c | 1,666$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.25 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 8c | 1,540$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.62 | 1,799 | 7.4%133 W · 1,666 L | -24.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcddc…63edbacked Yes | 1c | 1,535$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.89 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +301.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 60c | 1,492$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.54 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…7abcbacked Yes | 38c | 1,458$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.45 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 3c | 1,396$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.52 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 3c | 1,375$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 463 | 8.2%38 W · 425 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 21c | 1,332$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.81 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 79c | 1,223$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.13 | 899 | 10.2%92 W · 807 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 23c | 1,221$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.55 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 33c | 1,135$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.32 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 65c | 1,058$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.58 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 15c | 1,039$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.12 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 11c | 1,037$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.3 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,025$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.88 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…989bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,011$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.67 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…5f1ebacked Yes | 6c | 996$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,617.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…afccbacked Yes | 64c | 981.91$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes | 53c | 960.01$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.95 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39b…7364backed No | 9c | 913.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes | 39c | 853.83$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.83 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…07f1backed No | 71c | 829.34$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.99 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…cd3fbacked Yes | 73c | 827.76$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…63a2backed Yes | 30c | 786.39$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.79 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea9…a10bbacked Yes | 71c | 785.33$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.49 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 16c | 780.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.64 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e55…e157backed Yes | 16c | 770.41$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.06 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d8…5f22backed Yes | 29c | 750$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 42c | 690.51$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.1 | 117 | 10.3%12 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.4 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…2dadbacked Yes | 34c | 540.87$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 15c | 535.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.21 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 50c | 535.16$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.79 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 65c | 519.5$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.75 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…7158backed Yes | 17c | 512.74$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.64 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801c…a025backed Yes | 32c | 510.26$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.26 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 69c | 508.29$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.66 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 44c | 506.23$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.27 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 33c | 487.72$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.51 | 658 | 23.3%153 W · 505 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f3…0ce0backed Yes | 28c | 473.68$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d8…1cdfbacked Yes | 70c | 427.14$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked Yes | 77c | 417.45$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.45 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471e…b99abacked Yes | 28c | 377.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.8 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…0b00backed Yes | 47c | 366.49$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes | 64c | 343.3$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bd…637dbacked Yes | 68c | 317.65$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 24c | 317.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.32 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…0a28backed Yes | 61c | 313.28$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.84 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b8…02c6backed No | 54c | 299.98$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 71c | 291.11$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.35 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…ea33backed Yes | 40c | 284.57$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687a…25eabacked Yes | 59c | 284.14$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3667…75ffbacked Yes | 66c | 275$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed Yes | 74c | 267.28$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa114…fdadbacked Yes | 66c | 265.98$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…ad4ebacked Yes | 21c | 260.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.24 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…ecaabacked Yes | 13c | 253.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.85 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked No | 70c | 242.76$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…eb0cbacked Yes | 32c | 237.9$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.91 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…88edbacked Yes | 38c | 233.77$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.57 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…3e73backed Yes | 64c | 233.23$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…5dbabacked Yes | 12c | 231.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.23 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…2296backed Yes | 65c | 230.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes | 45c | 224.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 29c | 220.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.62 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes | 53c | 220$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.86 | 93 | 19.4%18 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe5…18d8backed Yes | 9c | 215.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.87 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0878…8757backed Yes | 27c | 210.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…9f1dbacked Yes | 32c | 206.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 204.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 2,181 | 3.9%85 W · 2,096 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75de…d206backed Yes | 10c | 203.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d4…36dbbacked Yes | 46c | 200.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…8c4bbacked Yes | 9c | 200.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0850…74c5backed Yes | 10c | 200.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.31 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1de…85d9backed Yes | 9c | 200.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.72 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.