NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0aff7b008dda32186deb99fd209f33c11952a181e26c6d7b169b465a8badf27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Over | 45c | 29,187$13,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,052.71 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 55c | 20,500$11,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,275 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Over | 50c | 20,019$10,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,009.34 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 49c | 19,631$9,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,012 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 18,837$9,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,376.56 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 53c | 13,546$7,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,158.49 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Under | 50c | 11,830$5,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,914.78 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Under | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 50c | 7,267$3,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,633.26 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 6,443$3,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,452.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 55c | 5,399$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,969.6 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 50c | 1,433$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under | 51c | 1,374$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 49c | 1,348$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.55 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…5840backed Under | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Under | 53c | 755.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 55c | 698$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.9 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 47c | 620.38$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.8 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 43c | 511$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.27 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Over | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Over | 51c | 244.09$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Under | 52c | 211.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.18 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…535dbacked Under | 49c | 204.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd57…a167backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Under | 51c | 196.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…366bbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 50c | 158$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 153$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaba…819cbacked Over | 52c | 144.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefca…bf2dbacked Under | 49c | 125.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce53…9483backed Under | 49c | 124.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed Under | 51c | 113.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…67b0backed Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4689…c1b3backed Over | 52c | 101.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f00…8982backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 43c | 97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Over | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5972…6880backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5982…fd3ebacked Over | 53c | 78.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50e…6067backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Under | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Over | 51c | 58.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…2bccbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5908…cbc1backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…9a72backed Under | 51c | 38.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 64cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…1992backed Over | 49c | 20.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Under | 51c | 20.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ba…ee0ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166c…d94bbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5this page
- Rockets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.