NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57d50967927f2fee069644a60d55eb660f5c90d76328ec69d0f2863ac49e3ba4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Thunder, Rockets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Rockets | 50c | 20,200$10,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,100 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Thunder | 50c | 20,066$10,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,033.13 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Rockets | 50c | 15,510$7,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,755.24 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…d974backed Thunder | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Thunder | 52c | 8,125$4,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,225 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Thunder | 49c | 7,291$3,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,572.7 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Rockets | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,430 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Thunder | 50c | 6,736$3,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,367.96 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Rockets | 50c | 4,304$2,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151.8 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Rockets | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Thunder | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Rockets | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Rockets | 51c | 2,040$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.6 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Thunder | 50c | 1,731$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.57 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Rockets | 50c | 1,498$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749 | 155 | 51%79 W · 76 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 49c | 1,330$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed Thunder | 50c | 1,174$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.04 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 74c | 1,158$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Rockets | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder | 22c | 999$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.78 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Rockets | 50c | 784$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Rockets | 53c | 674.18$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.18 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…b202backed Thunder | 50c | 608$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…e5d7backed Rockets | 50c | 608$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Rockets | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…ab80backed Rockets | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Rockets | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rockets | 48c | 360$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Thunder | 52c | 360$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 44c | 309.02$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Thunder | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…366bbacked Thunder | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Thunder | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…845abacked Thunder | 52c | 176.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Thunder | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Rockets | 51c | 134.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 447 | 51.5%230 W · 217 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Thunder | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 95 | 63.2%60 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Thunder | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Thunder | 52c | 96.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 385 | 45.7%176 W · 209 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Thunder | 49c | 81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…08dcbacked Thunder | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Rockets | 50c | 69.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 231 | 50.2%116 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557f…efa5backed Thunder | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Rockets | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eca…6882backed Rockets | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 159 | 36.5%58 W · 101 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Thunder | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Thunder | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Thunder | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 50c | 26.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)this page
- Rockets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.