TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Rockets, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,033,296
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,512,612

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,033,296 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 966 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Rockets37c373,519$138,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138,016.4285742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Rockets30c336,629$100,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,990.758843.2%38 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Thunder70c326,148$228,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,844.33534.3%12 W · 23 L-6.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Thunder70c268,821$188,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,646.3815443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Thunder66c201,772$132,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,440.468333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Rockets30c121,921$37,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,053.842,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Thunder65c120,777$78,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,676.4219249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc703…c3d5backed Thunder42c117,500$49,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,689.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+135.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Rockets33c113,863$37,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,062.8336148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Rockets31c111,665$34,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,616.171,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Rockets30c102,000$30,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,60014434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Thunder69c96,900$66,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,0392867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Rockets45c76,026$34,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,509.715942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Rockets37c72,307$27,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,093.523348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78c6…4710backed Thunder70c70,000$49,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Rockets50c68,523$33,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,948.221,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02fc…2c31backed Thunder70c63,462$44,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,038.551729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Rockets30c60,000$18,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,00047848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0b…9f41backed Rockets45c50,899$23,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,139.661172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Rockets31c50,104$15,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,532.2420253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81b1…0f83backed Thunder64c40,574$26,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,469.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Rockets30c33,334$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000.1910530.5%32 W · 73 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Rockets30c30,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0007939.2%31 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Rockets48c28,037$13,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,456.9247144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Thunder70c27,736$19,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,375.9712529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Thunder59c27,461$16,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,185.868840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Thunder69c27,136$18,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,321.6496447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Thunder51c27,080$13,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,269.185959.3%35 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Rockets31c26,715$8,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,261.5266744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Rockets30c26,139$7,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,841.6671052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Rockets41c22,079$9,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,076.2447448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets47c13,521$6,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,365.428,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Thunder71c13,254$9,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,843.527142.3%30 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Rockets30c13,216$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0006155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ad…17ddbacked Rockets16c12,406$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Rockets43c11,729$4,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,991.233,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Thunder68c11,562$7,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,712.8412843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed Rockets60c11,502$6,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,919.985664.3%36 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Thunder51c11,347$5,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,521.5512334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Rockets50c10,557$5,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,278.597038.6%27 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Thunder70c10,459$7,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,109.28246.3%38 W · 44 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder69c10,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Thunder69c10,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc153…6c8bbacked Thunder70c10,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0001376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+35.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Thunder69c10,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.994766%31 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Thunder61c9,800$6,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,79834645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c9e…0b92backed Thunder70c9,747$6,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,928.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Rockets38c9,661$3,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,718.4341848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Thunder47c9,542$4,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,075.4616547.3%78 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Rockets31c9,523$2,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,952.136145.9%28 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Thunder68c9,329$6,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,950.018219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Rockets30c9,036$2,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,710.8230053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Thunder70c9,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7003663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf751…dc0fbacked Rockets30c8,360$2,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,507.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4929…5ba5backed Thunder69c7,709$5,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,389.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78ca…dc46backed Thunder70c7,150$5,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Thunder68c7,090$4,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,236.163948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe945…a5cbbacked Thunder71c7,028$4,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.16450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe4a…bc74backed Thunder70c7,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Thunder58c6,900$4,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8991,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8525…bdbabacked Rockets53c6,776$3,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,581.2212941.1%53 W · 76 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Rockets28c6,423$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.4374748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Rockets4c6,112$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.9939018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Thunder71c6,000$4,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7702,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcce5…bdafbacked Rockets53c5,891$3,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,104.993053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe42e…8d89backed Rockets30c5,753$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,721.125149%25 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b6…b789backed Thunder70c5,700$3,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2821…a869backed Rockets30c5,559$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.841145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb3…e68cbacked Thunder50c5,518$2,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,773.6435050.6%177 W · 173 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Thunder71c5,485$3,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.795049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecf8…f5cdbacked Rockets29c5,477$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.3640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ad4…3c1abacked Thunder70c5,072$3,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.737748.1%37 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ea…668bbacked Rockets30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Rockets48c4,991$2,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,410.2881529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x474b…a13cbacked Thunder44c4,900$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,737.621233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cf0…9363backed Rockets29c4,763$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.37450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Thunder67c4,500$3,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4855556.4%31 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x630c…3801backed Thunder47c4,462$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,363.61942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Thunder69c4,395$3,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.3146342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…366bbacked Thunder64c4,150$2,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5092646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick34cpaid-18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Rockets45c3,982$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.21,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Rockets63c3,962$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496.3552460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdd6…23f8backed Thunder70c3,953$2,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…ee55backed Thunder49c3,851$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.352356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Thunder65c3,778$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.49563.2%60 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Thunder69c3,600$2,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,11645348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ad…ba8abacked Thunder56c3,429$1,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.624938.8%19 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a5…0d30backed Thunder58c3,396$1,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf390…79efbacked Thunder70c3,350$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0051330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf7…836abacked Rockets31c3,290$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.882748.1%13 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Rockets35c3,267$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.7420248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Rockets31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006435.9%23 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Rockets31c3,161$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9808043.8%35 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Thunder52c3,160$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.847751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7592…f661backed Thunder45c3,113$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.325728.1%16 W · 41 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-36.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Thunder70c3,056$2,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.8361851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x698f…ae41backed Thunder60c3,032$1,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.446841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Rockets30c3,030$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.929649%47 W · 49 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa74c…64a0backed Rockets65c3,029$1,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.1820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa576…89a4backed Rockets31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9302748.1%13 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.