NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e88e838d43f43adb7f49789a30e79b639e10a2a48a223a9039ea9492762412c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 53c | 23,062$12,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,837.68 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 10,578$5,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,163.73 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 2,544$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 45c | 1,400$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.2 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Over | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.06 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 1,077$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.04 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 47c | 999.11$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2648…36a0backed Over | 55c | 800.61$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…bb3fbacked Under | 48c | 652.17$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 44c | 611$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.84 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 45c | 494.9$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.11 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 47c | 380$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.6 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Over | 51c | 287$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 230.19$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.19 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 53c | 230.19$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.19 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Under | 75c | 200$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 53c | 168.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.29 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…5b0abacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Under | 51c | 87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 95 | 63.2%60 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Under | 53c | 79.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Over | 54c | 76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 49c | 56.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…64e1backed Over | 51c | 54.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e4…3fd9backed Over | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…09ddbacked Over | 54c | 32.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5this page
- Rockets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.