Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cecf7ff4fc55eb59245d1210f7e1d88af5c095824a49af73083858a3a40ee4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $625,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $411,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $625,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 331 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b11…003fbacked Yes | 16c | 39,153$6,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,137.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…6141backed Yes | 1c | 24,580$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b3…c773backed Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 10c | 16,296$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.14 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 4c | 15,634$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.38 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 13,968$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes | 10c | 10,183$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.99 | 173 | 22.5%39 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 38c | 9,397$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525.1 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 42c | 8,017$3,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,389.41 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 18c | 6,132$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.17 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 52c | 5,444$2,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,632.11 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…fe63backed Yes | 28c | 5,270$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.88 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 4,840$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.01 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 6c | 4,840$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.95 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 24c | 4,634$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.25 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…9f1dbacked Yes | 17c | 4,429$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 4,318$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.42 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbb…9355backed Yes | 2c | 4,285$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 22c | 4,216$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.47 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 52c | 4,156$2,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.33 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 3,822$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.09 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,700$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…caf8backed No | 49c | 3,700$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,882 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,638$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.32 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 7c | 3,586$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.12 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 53c | 3,284$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.22 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 23c | 3,280$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.36 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687a…25eabacked Yes | 12c | 2,738$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 15c | 2,638$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.63 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a44…021cbacked Yes | 60c | 2,536$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.85 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 72c | 2,527$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.36 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…2312backed Yes | 49c | 2,415$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 13c | 2,222$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.97 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +9.2wins | +0.37per pick | 11cpaid | +624.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 11c | 2,180$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +321.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,151$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.83 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 7c | 2,136$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.8 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 2,136$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 3c | 2,085$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 1c | 2,033$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af2…3601backed Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaead…6695backed No | 47c | 2,000$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 21c | 2,000$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.81 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 1,963$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…79e5backed Yes | 42c | 1,893$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.51 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bb…28fcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,844$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +58%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…d233backed Yes | 9c | 1,836$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 15c | 1,830$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.9 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes | 11c | 1,681$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.89 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes | 26c | 1,654$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 21c | 1,618$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.24 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…6d98backed Yes | 6c | 1,550$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 6c | 1,548$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 70 | 5.7%4 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…40bfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,402$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156d…957dbacked Yes | 79c | 1,388$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,278$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 58c | 1,272$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.24 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,210$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 29c | 1,141$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.48 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 28c | 1,127$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.63 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa114…fdadbacked Yes | 9c | 1,103$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 13c | 1,098$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.82 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,084$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…1661backed Yes | 13c | 1,081$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…50fbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,079$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 2c | 1,047$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970b…ff0fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,028$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,026$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 12c | 1,021$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 6c | 1,019$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…85a8backed Yes | 12c | 980$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes | 6c | 950.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 164 | 17.1%28 W · 136 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 4c | 927.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe68…e7b5backed Yes | 11c | 920.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…7158backed Yes | 7c | 906.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 55c | 897.82$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.19 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…435abacked Yes | 6c | 873.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…ea54backed Yes | 56c | 840.13$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.45 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50df…1f07backed Yes | 8c | 824.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes | 6c | 819.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ff…8ed7backed Yes | 61c | 814.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 65cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed No | 69c | 790.39$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6e…95c4backed Yes | 3c | 741.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d4…36dbbacked Yes | 53c | 741.06$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.51 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f53…49b0backed Yes | 41c | 737.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes | 21c | 734.32$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 6c | 695.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 15c | 680.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes | 45c | 678.72$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.11 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…8669backed Yes | 21c | 677.61$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…94b7backed No | 75c | 670.39$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…3656backed Yes | 45c | 657.13$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked No | 17c | 652.3$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.65 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e55…e157backed Yes | 12c | 652$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 48c | 649.99$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.08 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812f…bedbbacked Yes | 3c | 642.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.