TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$625,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$411,559

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $625,259 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 331 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b11…003fbacked Yes16c39,153$6,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,137.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7629…6141backed Yes1c24,580$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98b3…c773backed Yes0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes10c16,296$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.1410325.2%26 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes4c15,634$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.388206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes1c13,968$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.285325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes10c10,183$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.9917322.5%39 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes38c9,397$3,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,525.166222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes42c8,017$3,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,389.4128534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes18c6,132$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.1762713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No52c5,444$2,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,632.1123464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes28c5,270$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.887821.8%17 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes3c4,840$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.011,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes6c4,840$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.954816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes24c4,634$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.2531242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27ed…9f1dbacked Yes17c4,429$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.671625%4 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c4,318$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.422,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcbb…9355backed Yes2c4,285$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes22c4,216$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.4745715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No52c4,156$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976.3329331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c3,822$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.092,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes1c3,700$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.130310.9%33 W · 270 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb464…caf8backed No49c3,700$1,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes6c3,638$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.322619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes7c3,586$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.12639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes53c3,284$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.225240.4%21 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes23c3,280$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.3653817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x687a…25eabacked Yes12c2,738$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.161118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-68.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes15c2,638$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.6341017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a44…021cbacked Yes60c2,536$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.852114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No72c2,527$1,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.3654675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes17c2,500$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42562412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…2312backed Yes49c2,415$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.22450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+45.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes13c2,222$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.972548%12 W · 13 L+9.2wins+0.37per pick11cpaid+624.5%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Yes11c2,180$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.81127.3%3 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick9cpaid+321.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes5c2,151$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.832437%17 W · 226 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes7c2,136$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.88211%9 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes3c2,136$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.061,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes3c2,085$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.195625%14 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes1c2,033$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2326516.6%44 W · 221 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes3c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30858.2%7 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9af2…3601backed Yes55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaead…6695backed No47c2,000$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes21c2,000$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.81137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick24cpaid+10.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes5c1,963$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9284616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b7e…79e5backed Yes42c1,893$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.511330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2bb…28fcbacked Yes4c1,844$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+58%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b6…d233backed Yes9c1,836$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes15c1,830$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.922119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes11c1,681$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.891612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+63.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes26c1,654$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4353912.8%5 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed Yes21c1,618$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.241811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-73.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8de…6d98backed Yes6c1,550$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes6c1,548$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.45705.7%4 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid+12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes13c1,500$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5992…40bfbacked Yes3c1,402$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.028026.3%21 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes5c1,400$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.62468.5%21 W · 225 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x156d…957dbacked Yes79c1,388$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes3c1,278$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.774869.7%47 W · 439 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No58c1,272$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.242958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes6c1,210$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.031715.3%9 W · 162 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes29c1,141$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.4838811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes28c1,127$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.6354122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa114…fdadbacked Yes9c1,103$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes13c1,098$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8228113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes5c1,084$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.27828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c6…1661backed Yes13c1,081$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd519…50fbbacked Yes14c1,079$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes2c1,047$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6843017%73 W · 357 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x970b…ff0fbacked Yes28c1,028$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes1c1,026$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118631.7%59 W · 127 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes12c1,021$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1274327.9%12 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes6c1,019$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6046521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82bb…85a8backed Yes12c980$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.61450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes6c950.19$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5716417.1%28 W · 136 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa486…25d4backed Yes4c927.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe68…e7b5backed Yes11c920.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ec…7158backed Yes7c906.8$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.21520%3 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No55c897.82$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.1943933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5be4…435abacked Yes6c873.36$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2880%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes56c840.13$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.452828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50df…1f07backed Yes8c824.41$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.78119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes6c819.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ff…8ed7backed Yes61c814.19$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001127.3%3 W · 8 L-4.2wins-0.38per pick65cpaid-64.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1804…bd47backed No69c790.39$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.64666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec6e…95c4backed Yes3c741.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d4…36dbbacked Yes53c741.06$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.511520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f53…49b0backed Yes41c737.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes21c734.32$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515813.8%8 W · 50 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes6c695.42$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.935198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes15c680.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100588.6%5 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes45c678.72$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.114818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb9…8669backed Yes21c677.61$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.74425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a5…94b7backed No75c670.39$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.35100%5 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3335…3656backed Yes45c657.13$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked No17c652.3$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.655249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes12c652$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.17524%18 W · 57 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed Yes48c649.99$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.082630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x812f…bedbbacked Yes3c642.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.