Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8226ef2f458366945d8dc932cd4f55aa054de8897daffb23792105b745b2519
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,892,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,892,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b70…7aa8backed Yes | 0c | 925,962$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa6…8529backed Yes | 0c | 470,555$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…8266backed Yes | 0c | 394,895$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…5e5ebacked Yes | 0c | 390,746$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cf…6e52backed Yes | 0c | 320,781$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…6222backed Yes | 0c | 274,299$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…dd7bbacked Yes | 0c | 222,830$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…f0f1backed Yes | 0c | 214,983$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…04c2backed Yes | 0c | 208,837$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…488cbacked Yes | 0c | 202,991$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…a859backed Yes | 0c | 187,846$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 2,118$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,950$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,231$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3447…81e4backed Yes | 2c | 1,159$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b6…4fa8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…b0bfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…d14dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78eb…23c2backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…727ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b4…301dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462c…85a6backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…1248backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ee…d8cdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…7030backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf615…ebb5backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…baf4backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf5…bad8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4a…ef6abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a7…37e3backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509b…c994backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…fa5fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…27f8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21a…fdd4backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 12c | 992.27$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 7c | 449.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fc…18a6backed Yes | 15c | 266.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes | 13c | 246.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…08bfbacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…c260backed Yes | 12c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…7579backed Yes | 13c | 104.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…c181backed Yes | 12c | 100.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…1695backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.