Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabfbfedc48e4e789ca25088faeb10dae4f8da5d01acf82f84d249c12b59b8153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $336,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $336,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 0c | 33,488$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0965…a750backed Yes | 0c | 32,836$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 25,317$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.61 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9994…03ddbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 4.5%5 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…435abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes | 1c | 7,817$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 173 | 22.5%39 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,885$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,709$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 4c | 4,584$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.21 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 2c | 4,403$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,244$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 0c | 3,898$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 3,653$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.76 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 2c | 3,600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 3c | 3,176$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…ba94backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…d233backed Yes | 1c | 2,338$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 15c | 2,317$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.59 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 3c | 2,089$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,915$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,244$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 1c | 1,180$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…4e95backed Yes | 2c | 1,179$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…6bcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 11c | 1,064$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.94 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…7ad0backed Yes | 4c | 1,026$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…fb32backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 10c | 958.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 1c | 888$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 70 | 5.7%4 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes | 1c | 828.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 5c | 825.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a5…6780backed Yes | 3c | 729.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 10c | 689.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 5c | 545.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked Yes | 2c | 537.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3971…52cbbacked Yes | 3c | 313.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes | 8c | 307.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes | 9c | 241.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 164 | 17.1%28 W · 136 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…4b0dbacked Yes | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…4615backed Yes | 11c | 216$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb2…deddbacked Yes | 12c | 208.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…4407backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801c…a025backed Yes | 15c | 191.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 7c | 173.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d0…ef39backed Yes | 15c | 171.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 14c | 142.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e5…25f5backed Yes | 14c | 139.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…7599backed Yes | 14c | 139.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 230 | 17%39 W · 191 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes | 15c | 120.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeef…d4fbbacked Yes | 17c | 118.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4945…3820backed Yes | 16c | 109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…fd9abacked Yes | 11c | 102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…6422backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…7579backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…fe63backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…c260backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…c181backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…9917backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 20.3%16 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d7…59c1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c1…7ceabacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…6e5bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6742…2ab7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ea…2072backed Yes | 14c | 99.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes | 13c | 99.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…989bbacked Yes | 14c | 99.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…d3e6backed Yes | 18c | 99.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca31…1314backed Yes | 14c | 96.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 12c | 91.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.