Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x483a65254d19f73eaefd227664d8be55e554bb0c7987f8a321be067ce752ea75

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 24, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $394,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $153,035

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $394,696 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	99,999$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	3c	15,108$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.66	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	14,888$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,325$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.55	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes	0c	7,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	184	12%22 W · 162 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe534…2db5backed Yes	1c	2,256$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.57	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa620…bfb0backed Yes	1c	2,206$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.72	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	2c	2,094$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.86	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	1,704$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	1,675$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x687a…25eabacked Yes	5c	1,055$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	1c	1,027$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	6c	1,016$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.96	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.79	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	825.06$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.47	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes	3c	637.8$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+63.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc215…aa47backed Yes	10c	205.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event