Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x521386a42663c2a7fe738fa912c73724f80b9129391b8fb00bc925c807b1998a

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 24, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $278,178
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $117,337

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,178 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	112,933$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.87	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c22…63d7backed Yes	1c	12,998$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	0c	8,023$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.73	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b56…80ddbacked Yes	0c	7,578$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	0c	3,627$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	3,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,802$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	3c	1,787$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.64	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,505$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.17	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,458$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.12	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	1c	999.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	1c	999.51$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2169…b9ffbacked Yes	1c	770$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes	4c	523.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+63.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccc9…7a15backed Yes	5c	436.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	113	19.5%22 W · 91 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfc99…86babacked Yes	4c	401.94$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a55…31a3backed Yes	3c	324.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee1d…fba5backed Yes	4c	268.78$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event