Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f62ff73db1eefd485624f1c5b1745f43830c52532697d5776d5caf71d2095d1

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 24, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $144,640
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $52,978

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,640 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	25,384$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.38	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f1e…f4f3backed Yes	1c	4,469$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	4,020$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.21	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	3,591$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.12	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	4c	3,317$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,168$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.75	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	2,486$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.43	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b56…80ddbacked Yes	3c	2,235$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.08	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,952$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.45	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,717$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.48	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	3c	1,600$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.49	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	3c	1,271$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.21	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e9d…5a7dbacked Yes	3c	1,231$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5be4…435abacked Yes	2c	1,175$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes	2c	849.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.55	94	11.7%11 W · 83 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	722.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.84	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	6c	714.79$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	6c	639.38$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	586.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3cc…65c7backed Yes	3c	500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	4c	462.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes	3c	419.89$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+63.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked Yes	6c	410.52$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0ce…5839backed Yes	3c	341$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.26	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb1…6bcfbacked Yes	5c	331.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.09	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	4c	266.13$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.54	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8b99backed Yes	6c	234.47$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x687a…25eabacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	9c	140$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bb8…dafdbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.16per pick	14cpaid	+70.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	75c	14.71$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.63	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event