Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeabfbe3b93e8c81c8b602522a44da374c2d874448466261cb27e49055f566b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $485,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $545,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $485,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b11…003fbacked No | 12c | 53,311$6,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,640.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 20c | 21,674$4,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,255.88 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 41c | 7,876$3,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,645.89 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 45c | 7,155$3,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,201.87 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…fe63backed Yes | 33c | 4,882$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,265.15 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 45c | 4,335$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,388.7 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 55c | 3,912$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,155.22 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 3,775$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,081.3 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 47c | 3,725$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.4 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes | 29c | 3,481$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480.55 | 173 | 22.5%39 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 25c | 3,469$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,591.6 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Yes | 59c | 3,408$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +232.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…79e5backed Yes | 30c | 2,779$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 17c | 2,430$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.74 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 10c | 2,330$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +321.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 18c | 2,320$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.62 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5d…dbc5backed Yes | 19c | 2,186$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +415.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…2312backed Yes | 52c | 2,045$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…b76cbacked Yes | 61c | 2,000$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 68c | 2,000$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.97 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked No | 66c | 1,899$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.18 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,802$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.24 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 73c | 1,479$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.87 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…9a95backed Yes | 52c | 1,400$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 10c | 1,358$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.13 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ae…aa64backed Yes | 76c | 1,272$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f7…de01backed No | 16c | 1,267$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,236$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.45 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 69c | 1,195$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.93 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 43c | 1,100$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.26 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…85a8backed No | 3c | 1,100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked No | 62c | 1,067$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.29 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…9f1dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,049$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.31 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,027$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.38 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…055ebacked No | 2c | 1,002$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.01 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.99 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 43c | 929.12$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 65c | 924.69$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 917.98$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.21 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 17c | 883.42$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.94 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes | 18c | 830.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.17 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a7…14e3backed Yes | 79c | 829.57$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes | 36c | 827.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.11 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes | 51c | 774.23$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.37 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 16c | 745$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.06 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed Yes | 59c | 742.58$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…0b00backed Yes | 31c | 704.28$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e55…e157backed Yes | 32c | 701.32$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.01 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 14c | 694.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.14 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…d220backed Yes | 55c | 667$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…7123backed Yes | 59c | 662.07$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 33c | 566.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.16 | 731 | 15.2%111 W · 620 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…a20abacked Yes | 72c | 558.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.22 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea0…01ccbacked No | 68c | 558.19$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b62…ad6cbacked Yes | 51c | 547.64$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 11c | 539.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.44 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…cd3fbacked Yes | 54c | 532.42$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes | 19c | 523.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.86 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 21c | 512.26$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.17 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed No | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6471…457abacked Yes | 47c | 486.78$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.45 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 18c | 467.32$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.25 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f3afbacked Yes | 13c | 461.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…7599backed Yes | 25c | 457.29$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.58 | 230 | 17%39 W · 191 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b8…02c6backed No | 75c | 456.99$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked No | 4c | 432.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea9…a10bbacked Yes | 29c | 418$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.63 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0104…530ebacked Yes | 12c | 412.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed Yes | 50c | 403.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 16c | 402.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.73 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…ea54backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.32 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…124fbacked Yes | 57c | 395.6$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801c…a025backed Yes | 9c | 389.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.72 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…bfd2backed No | 64c | 388.25$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.29 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 386.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.44 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 38c | 377.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.07 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…9480backed No | 60c | 369.54$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.31 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed No | 24c | 368.37$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes | 50c | 364.2$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes | 50c | 356.21$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.21 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50df…1f07backed Yes | 28c | 354.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.01 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 77c | 346.8$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes | 53c | 343.98$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.05 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…7158backed Yes | 29c | 337.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.45 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…ea78backed Yes | 48c | 310.94$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…d0b3backed Yes | 65c | 308.57$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf61…2ed5backed Yes | 22c | 306.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.14 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes | 52c | 306.69$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.69 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 21c | 302$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.07 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80de…b38bbacked Yes | 34c | 297.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 10c | 284.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.88 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6486…b00bbacked Yes | 12c | 280$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 53c | 278.32$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0f…37babacked Yes | 45c | 276.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.41 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbb…7525backed Yes | 18c | 273.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.17 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…63a2backed Yes | 48c | 272.14$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.28 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…50fbbacked Yes | 47c | 270$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…8bbabacked Yes | 52c | 268.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.