TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$485,715
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$545,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $485,715 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b11…003fbacked No12c53,311$6,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,640.920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes20c21,674$4,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,255.882825%7 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes41c7,876$3,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,645.8928534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No45c7,155$3,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,201.8723464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes33c4,882$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,265.157821.8%17 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes45c4,335$1,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.75240.4%21 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No55c3,912$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,155.2254274.9%406 W · 136 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c3,775$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,081.32,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes47c3,725$1,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958.462713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes29c3,481$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,480.5517322.5%39 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes25c3,469$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,591.610325.2%26 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Yes59c3,408$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+232.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b7e…79e5backed Yes30c2,779$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.281330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes17c2,430$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,014.742097.7%16 W · 193 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No10c2,330$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.991127.3%3 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick9cpaid+321.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes18c2,320$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,898.6262412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee5d…dbc5backed Yes19c2,186$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+415.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…2312backed Yes52c2,045$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.74450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+45.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes9c2,000$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,82045715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9621…b76cbacked Yes61c2,000$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed No68c2,000$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.97137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick24cpaid+10.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No66c1,899$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.188206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes12c1,802$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.243119.4%6 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+109.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes73c1,479$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.8768615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec6d…9a95backed Yes52c1,400$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes10c1,358$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.132623.1%6 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+179.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8ae…aa64backed Yes76c1,272$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18f7…de01backed No16c1,267$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes27c1,236$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.452619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No69c1,195$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.931507.3%11 W · 139 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes43c1,100$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.262532%8 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82bb…85a8backed No3c1,100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.721450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked No62c1,067$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.292123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ed…9f1dbacked Yes31c1,049$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.311625%4 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes18c1,027$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.381715.3%9 W · 162 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2745…055ebacked No2c1,002$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.016248.4%30 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes3c999.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.992468.5%21 W · 225 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3701…ce16backed No43c929.12$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c8…5ababacked No65c924.69$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No46c917.98$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.2199619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes17c883.42$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.9454122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes18c830.17$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.171717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77a7…14e3backed Yes79c829.57$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.46450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes36c827.11$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.115813.8%8 W · 50 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes51c774.23$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.373633.3%12 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+101.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes16c745$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.0645511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1804…bd47backed Yes59c742.58$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.57666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a1…0b00backed Yes31c704.28$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.281225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes32c701.32$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.017524%18 W · 57 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes14c694.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.14588.6%5 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2439…d220backed Yes55c667$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.81540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9416…7123backed Yes59c662.07$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes33c566.99$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.1673115.2%111 W · 620 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b87…a20abacked Yes72c558.31$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.222924.1%7 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6ea0…01ccbacked No68c558.19$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+77.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b62…ad6cbacked Yes51c547.64$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.141030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes11c539.44$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.4442110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3601…cd3fbacked Yes54c532.42$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes19c523.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.863912.8%5 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes21c512.26$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.1728113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa486…25d4backed No4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6471…457abacked Yes47c486.78$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.452520%5 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes18c467.32$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.2538811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes13c461.23$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.992222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes25c457.29$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.5823017%39 W · 191 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18b8…02c6backed No75c456.99$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.46650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked No4c432.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.271225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea9…a10bbacked Yes29c418$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.631915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0104…530ebacked Yes12c412.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.441118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8d…13b7backed Yes50c403.93$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes16c402.65$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.734816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes30c400$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.322828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b72…124fbacked Yes57c395.6$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x801c…a025backed Yes9c389.18$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.725211.5%6 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x240d…bfd2backed No64c388.25$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.295630.4%17 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes19c386.03$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.442,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes38c377.83$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.075625%14 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed No60c369.54$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.318711.5%10 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x675a…0551backed No24c368.37$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.041729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes50c364.2$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.351926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes50c356.21$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.213611.1%4 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50df…1f07backed Yes28c354.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.01119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Yes77c346.8$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.83732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+83.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes53c343.98$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.0511221.4%24 W · 88 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ec…7158backed Yes29c337.95$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.451520%3 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30bc…ea78backed Yes48c310.94$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.721330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-41.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d0b3backed Yes65c308.57$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.57922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf61…2ed5backed Yes22c306.88$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.14119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes52c306.69$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.693225%8 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes21c302$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.075512.7%7 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80de…b38bbacked Yes34c297.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.01771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+77.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes10c284.24$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.8830310.9%33 W · 270 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6486…b00bbacked Yes12c280$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+120.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes53c278.32$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.09742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+47.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a0f…37babacked Yes45c276.52$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.416535.4%23 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafbb…7525backed Yes18c273.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.175226.9%14 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes48c272.14$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.284022.5%9 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd519…50fbbacked Yes47c270$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3116…8bbabacked Yes52c268.15$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.711233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.