Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc048375329805fc6881dccc2606d1367869d8ef9c6bfd9aa67b17197bd3cd9d2

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 24, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $160,474
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,191

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,474 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	3c	19,608$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.23	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	6,132$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.8	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	5c	3,922$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,071$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.21	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,855$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.7	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	9c	2,008$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.8	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	4c	1,910$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.06	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,821$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	3c	1,583$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.07	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	4c	1,339$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.22	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,315$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.48	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	1,278$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.64	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	2c	1,183$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.28	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b56…80ddbacked Yes	6c	978.22$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.75	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	8c	759.3$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5be4…435abacked Yes	4c	722.62$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	2c	615.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	3c	578.92$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.46	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bb1…6bcfbacked Yes	6c	528.64$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.43	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27ed…9f1dbacked Yes	9c	513.86$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.19	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	14c	425.13$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	3c	418.59$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.83	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	5c	412.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes	5c	407.57$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+63.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked Yes	10c	401.8$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccc9…7a15backed Yes	7c	301$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	113	19.5%22 W · 91 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	4c	281.61$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.84	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8b99backed Yes	9c	272.58$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	7c	268.45$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	9c	220$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	7c	195.58$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes	11c	186$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.56	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	7c	171$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.78	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab70…2c34backed Yes	11c	109.24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.87	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc8…1461backed Yes	12c	109.04$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	17cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes	10c	108.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.26	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb8…dafdbacked Yes	11c	106.78$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.16per pick	14cpaid	+70.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ef5…453bbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae9…62fabacked Yes	13c	99.77$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event