Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd1fefa276f64fe6cd314e31962e9114a08916044a0c6407d315bd9ce20c912e

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 22, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $236,393
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $141,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,393 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	13,369$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.67	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33ec…87eebacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	0c	5,133$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaae…8aa1backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	3,339$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.08	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes	4c	2,841$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.41	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,613$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.81	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	3c	1,981$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49b8…f8f4backed Yes	1c	1,541$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,458$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.63	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	1c	1,140$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.14	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	15c	1,100$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.5	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x332b…4d8abacked No	80c	1,000$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…6200backed Yes	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	11cpaid	+4,900%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes	13c	999.99$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	82	11%9 W · 73 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	793.85$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.99	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	13c	779.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9d…7ad0backed Yes	3c	621.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	2c	607.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.39	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4835…c692backed Yes	18c	444.44$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes	17c	423.9$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.27	50	14%7 W · 43 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	10c	382$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.74	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebf…d3ffbacked Yes	7c	313.82$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.97	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes	12c	299.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e24…c177backed Yes	21c	289.29$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb885…4b0dbacked Yes	13c	260$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.8	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	8c	216$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc91…99c0backed Yes	18c	213.98$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.52	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb2…deddbacked Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+52.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5a…4407backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdec…ffe8backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58fc…18a6backed Yes	12c	179.54$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.14	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	17cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x801c…a025backed Yes	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65d0…ef39backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5377…e6dabacked Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c1f…fd9abacked Yes	10c	127.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.18per pick	25cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fae…08bfbacked Yes	9c	120$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	12c	120$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x17f9…705ebacked Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	58	25.9%15 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ea…2072backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	58	20.7%12 W · 46 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7557…7579backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde2f…1209backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x790e…989bbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.18	78	21.8%17 W · 61 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce39…c181backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c1…7ceabacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23e0…adc0backed Yes	14c	99.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4945…3820backed Yes	13c	99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.87	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1804…1810backed Yes	16c	92.82$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.21	79	21.5%17 W · 62 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6742…2ab7backed Yes	19c	71.83$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed No	79c	17.62$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.7	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event