Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x078b088a6f57814730b5d4f424227c955c2fd58f0841a410bd2e108f000c3e8e

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 22, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $127,837
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $79,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,837 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes	1c	17,778$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.78	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	13c	3,835$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.77	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	14c	3,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	1,393$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.06	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	10c	1,285$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.63	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	1,100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…2239backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da1…2212backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	19c	520.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes	19c	430.27$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	50	14%7 W · 43 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb885…4b0dbacked Yes	15c	349.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.4	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	9c	344.03$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58fc…18a6backed Yes	18c	249.99$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.5	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	17cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	8c	216$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x382c…2261backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c1f…fd9abacked Yes	8c	166.14$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.63	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.18per pick	25cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No	80c	144$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeef…d4fbbacked Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x65d0…ef39backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	7c	135$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5377…e6dabacked Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes	9c	122.2$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fae…08bfbacked Yes	14c	120$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	16c	120$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x17f9…705ebacked Yes	15c	106.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	58	25.9%15 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5a…4407backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ea…2072backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	58	20.7%12 W · 46 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7557…7579backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x790e…989bbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	78	21.8%17 W · 61 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce39…c181backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ef5…453bbacked Yes	14c	84.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23e0…adc0backed Yes	15c	79$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…7569backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	60	20%12 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa881…8b3ebacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1596…6855backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391f…cf8dbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	-5.3wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No	80c	41$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.2	12	75%9 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	76cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event