Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ddde0b801ac79743b4c0eaa9b76cd9594f575ba3b4bed0eba2bf17d021d699e

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 24, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $223,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $76,365

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,052 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	23,891$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.43	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	4c	19,032$792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$792.21	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	1c	9,040$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.06	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b56…80ddbacked Yes	1c	8,939$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.76	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,441$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	4,791$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.91	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	2c	4,100$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.75	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes	6c	3,664$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.68	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,565$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.56	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes	6c	3,300$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.57	78	21.8%17 W · 61 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	3,299$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.85	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	6c	2,350$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.56	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	5c	2,269$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.23	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	8c	1,928$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.45	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	3c	1,383$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.33	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	3c	1,298$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.46	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066e…d3ddbacked Yes	1c	1,210$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	17c	1,204$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.88	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	1,141$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.64	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	3c	890$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.51	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2439…d220backed Yes	12c	833.81$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	22cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05dd…4d45backed Yes	9c	800$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.86	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27ed…9f1dbacked Yes	12c	795.9$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	6c	776.77$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	5c	665.3$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.86	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe68…e7b5backed Yes	7c	616.96$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	609.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	7c	559.63$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.63	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked Yes	13c	519$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.62	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	12c	512$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.09	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5be4…435abacked Yes	10c	505.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	5c	502.32$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	82	11%9 W · 73 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6486…b00bbacked Yes	16c	443.76$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.71	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+120.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	17c	432.64$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72f9…629abacked Yes	6c	400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	16c	383.15$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.85	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8134…305fbacked Yes	16c	309.26$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	6c	308.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.05	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	10c	307$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.49	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f2…36a2backed Yes	12c	299.2$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes	9c	293.83$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.19	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+63.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de6…cc0fbacked Yes	12c	249.6$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab7e…2a96backed Yes	12c	236$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.37	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	13c	219.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.66	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x687a…25eabacked Yes	14c	210$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.79	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d4…36dbbacked Yes	10c	203.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-33%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bb1…6bcfbacked Yes	11c	200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0850…74c5backed Yes	8c	199.82$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef5…453bbacked Yes	10c	180$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fb…9f09backed Yes	12c	174.69$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.47	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	10c	171$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes	16c	155$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x676e…eb0cbacked Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x246d…122ebacked Yes	15c	135.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b2…cec8backed Yes	10c	135$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x801c…a025backed Yes	14c	120.48$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	16c	117.19$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.07	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccc9…7a15backed Yes	15c	113.97$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.21	113	19.5%22 W · 91 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xeb26…05f5backed Yes	13c	110$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x459e…f8febacked Yes	13c	106.65$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	10c	103$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542f…916abacked Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ae9…62fabacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	16c	99.39$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42e9…48e2backed Yes	14c	79$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8b99backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event