Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8029e8ef0cd9df64580cf399c347775f0a224b681dfdf1c150be065f5ef12162

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 21, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $424,210
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $63,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,210 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x66aa…408dbacked Yes	0c	67,816$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8651…a189backed Yes	0c	67,606$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00f7…b272backed Yes	0c	63,578$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf77a…a57bbacked Yes	0c	50,862$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b14…ade4backed Yes	0c	33,908$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.91	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe081…c379backed Yes	0c	33,908$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.91	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0965…a750backed Yes	0c	25,111$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	11c	2,716$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.99	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	6c	2,091$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.46	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	1,537$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.33	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	5c	1,459$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.79	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	+3.9wins	+0.13per pick	7cpaid	+109.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4bf2…8388backed Yes	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	16c	599.99$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	18c	552.46$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	7c	500.53$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.03	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0ba…ee0ebacked Yes	25c	395.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb885…4b0dbacked Yes	15c	253.89$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.61	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48aa…54e5backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes	17c	200$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.06	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	14%7 W · 43 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	13c	122.44$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.51	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc8…1461backed Yes	17c	120.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	17cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fae…08bfbacked Yes	15c	120$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	16c	120$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	10c	113$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeeef…d4fbbacked Yes	14c	105.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	58	25.9%15 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3971…52cbbacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf1…1695backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	58	22.4%13 W · 45 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7557…7579backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x790e…989bbacked Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	78	21.8%17 W · 61 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce39…c181backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa881…8b3ebacked Yes	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0ce…5839backed Yes	16c	64.94$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No	79c	56.76$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.18	12	75%9 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	76cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e4…7569backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	60	20%12 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	27c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x391f…cf8dbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	-5.3wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event