Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81ec52ea8e2310097b9e671ff087a2809193281736b55e26edd6a8247149c8d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 34c | 30,003$10,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,201.56 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 66c | 29,993$19,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,197.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…17efbacked Yes | 42c | 2,837$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 63c | 2,197$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed No | 64c | 1,514$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…9f86backed Yes | 41c | 1,050$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 36c | 886.71$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.24 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 59c | 850.63$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.92 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 55c | 779.45$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.76 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…ef6bbacked No | 61c | 566.36$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…9ca7backed No | 49c | 304.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x163f…1845backed No | 59c | 280$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x998c…f0babacked No | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…7b0dbacked No | 59c | 260$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…8112backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13f…e1eebacked No | 59c | 170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…747cbacked Yes | 59c | 148.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 65c | 142.86$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked No | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…2a26backed No | 59c | 140$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…a005backed Yes | 59c | 117.17$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 57c | 91.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…675fbacked No | 29c | 80.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…b88ebacked No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…982dbacked Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 58c | 67.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd4…b75bbacked Yes | 33c | 60.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…6240backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Yes | 79c | 50.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…2bccbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…a03abacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac2…8384backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8f…b038backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…38b1backed Yes | 73c | 27.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2b3ebacked No | 76c | 23.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed No | 48c | 22.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x228c…d768backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31bb…0331backed No | 79c | 19.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-10-27?No won
- Will Macarthur FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.