Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6946e1ad2821934ac79e57a801ca56c9297879f2b939c5497edfd3d1ebdfc8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 70c | 1,808$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.55 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 33c | 1,061$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes | 28c | 820.96$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Yes | 30c | 614.33$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 162.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 24c | 131.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 29c | 104.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…ee60backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907f…ae52backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…a84dbacked Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked No | 79c | 18.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-10-27?No won
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.