Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-10-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95989dc4958c7462641a4b814a6ce2edefcce7fe691b3c16fe27687f30dc30d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 39c | 30,000$11,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,644.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 61c | 25,675$15,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,951.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 61c | 6,206$3,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400.22 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 63c | 2,820$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 61c | 1,435$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.64 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Yes | 40c | 756.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 62c | 714$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.32 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 80c | 676.36$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.27 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…15eabacked Yes | 37c | 647$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 63c | 628.93$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.08 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 41c | 612.3$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…57b6backed Yes | 20c | 602.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 39c | 594.87$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Yes | 40c | 484$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x550a…0b68backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 38c | 130.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…bfffbacked Yes | 41c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb0…cfdabacked Yes | 41c | 115$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 63c | 101.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes | 37c | 101.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…a03abacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…f629backed Yes | 39c | 53.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Yes | 40c | 44.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…d9e5backed Yes | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc765…51e1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-10-27?this page
- Will Macarthur FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.