La Liga · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Alaves end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x941fb1673f5e28fedf1da23be24b01a0f885ba1bc7b2c479d15b17a9c7ade810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 32c | 5,011$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.13 | 241 | 47.7%115 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 41c | 4,820$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 56c | 3,450$1,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.19 | 258 | 72.9%188 W · 70 L | +23.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 68c | 2,503$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.42 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…d2d9backed No | 68c | 1,482$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf6…7ec7backed Yes | 32c | 1,480$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked No | 61c | 1,464$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.48 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 1,210$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.2 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 31c | 832.85$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.98 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c6…c26dbacked No | 68c | 638.71$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 69c | 449.13$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.26 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…ee60backed Yes | 33c | 424.24$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…792bbacked No | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 238 | 55.9%133 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 79c | 251.46$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.65 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b14…d18cbacked No | 24c | 244$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.12 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked No | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc48c…8642backed Yes | 23c | 158.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 400 | 33.5%134 W · 266 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 50c | 127$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4907backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 72c | 88.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 76c | 82.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 65c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…2300backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…2bccbacked No | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 61.6%69 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…bc30backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…35e5backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 78cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…a84dbacked No | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 33c | 45.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Yes | 70c | 44.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 169 | 62.1%105 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 67c | 27.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb2…996cbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d88…bf1dbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Alaves end in a draw?this page
- Will Alaves win on 2025-10-26?No won
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.