NFL · resolved market
Packers vs. Steelers: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0895c21b9c545c66193387f61f13ead9ad2c98b7a213eda70f1f82e5c5ffe44c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $340,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $343,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 50c | 124,890$62,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62,144.77 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Under | 50c | 63,814$31,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,718.62 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 51c | 60,000$30,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,400 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Under | 50c | 59,798$30,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,096.93 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 51c | 57,417$29,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,912.84 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 52c | 28,601$14,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,746.42 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 48c | 26,322$12,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,634.33 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 23,101$11,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,352.99 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 22,326$10,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,789.76 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Under | 49c | 18,863$9,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,243 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 57c | 10,986$6,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,709.68 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Under | 50c | 5,356$2,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -8.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 50c | 3,500$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 48c | 2,986$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.16 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 45c | 2,585$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.74 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.1 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 1,529$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.42 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 49c | 1,316$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.84 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 49c | 1,196$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.5 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 2c | 1,062$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.76 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Over | 50c | 999$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Under | 53c | 888$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.64 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 684.02$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.63 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Under | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…caddbacked Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…2c5abacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd5…7236backed Over | 51c | 446$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x301e…3f91backed Over | 52c | 397.28$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 49c | 367.35$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Under | 50c | 320$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 138 | 42%58 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Over | 54c | 220$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca33…918cbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Under | 50c | 188.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 49c | 188.34$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Over | 50c | 175$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…98f9backed Under | 51c | 156$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 54c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf34…caf1backed Over | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…2bccbacked Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…de85backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 51c | 54.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06f…1984backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee0…21f8backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Over | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd99…aea7backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…70d8backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Packers vs. Steelers: O/U 45.5this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-2.5)Steelers won
- Packers vs. SteelersPackers won
- Packers vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineSteelers won
- Packers vs. Steelers: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Steelers: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Packers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.