NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x216e985cb8e237b2ddcfbd77b474fbd207c5411e2e47a21bc99260bd4a955574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Packersof Packers, Steelers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Steelers | 48c | 63,313$30,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,390.44 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Packers | 52c | 53,849$28,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,847.45 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Packers | 54c | 22,246$12,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,237.3 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Steelers | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Steelers | 46c | 18,776$8,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,597.65 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Packers | 52c | 10,970$5,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,265.54 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Packers | 52c | 9,825$5,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,713.35 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Steelers | 48c | 7,483$3,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,592.06 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Packers | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Packers | 52c | 5,740$2,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,772.6 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Steelers | 47c | 5,581$2,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,622.96 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Steelers | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Steelers | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Packers | 52c | 1,890$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.2 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Packers | 52c | 1,404$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.92 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…874abacked Packers | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…b76cbacked Packers | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cd…cecabacked Packers | 52c | 955.87$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3818…c72dbacked Packers | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…4fcebacked Packers | 54c | 816.54$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Steelers | 47c | 681.38$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.25 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Steelers | 49c | 615.36$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.53 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Packers | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Steelers | 48c | 423$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.04 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Steelers | 49c | 410$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Packers | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Packers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Steelers | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Packers | 52c | 133.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Steelers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Packers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Packers | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Packers | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Packers | 53c | 72.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…98f9backed Packers | 53c | 65.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Packers | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…ede6backed Packers | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Steelers | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Steelers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-2.5)Steelers won
- Packers vs. SteelersPackers won
- Packers vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineSteelers won
- Packers vs. Steelers: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Steelers: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Steelers: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Packers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.