NFL · resolved market
Packers vs. Steelers: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf88357c4b5e35ec083fd03d4b143fde998c170abba04ec352e314ff0c046161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 54c | 9,886$5,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,547.75 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 46c | 8,614$3,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,962.44 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 44c | 1,886$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.72 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35e…94cabacked Over | 56c | 1,886$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.72 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 45c | 1,496$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.19 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 45c | 783.64$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.09 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 55c | 728$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.6 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c19…3ec0backed Under | 46c | 574.2$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…2370backed Over | 54c | 555$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 55c | 318.18$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.18 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Over | 55c | 290.65$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.79 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 55c | 210.43$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.73 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2664…adc1backed Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 55c | 68.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 52c | 43.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9064…1bb3backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 46c | 34.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…8903backed Under | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 21.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf76f…d928backed Over | 55c | 20.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ee…be10backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +250.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Over | 55c | 19.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Packers vs. Steelers: O/U 44.5this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-2.5)Steelers won
- Packers vs. SteelersPackers won
- Packers vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineSteelers won
- Packers vs. Steelers: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Steelers: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Packers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.