TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Buccaneers vs. Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lionsof Buccaneers, Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,448,884
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,230,210

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,448,884 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,674 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Buccaneers26c1,191,146$305,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305,890.647738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Lions70c946,262$665,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280,878.6117041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Buccaneers23c689,475$161,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,439.726248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed88…f3c4backed Buccaneers30c638,030$189,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189,559.098344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1d9…5ee1backed Lions70c557,284$390,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167,185.332050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Buccaneers28c410,000$114,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114,00010333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Buccaneers28c380,578$106,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106,497.3922950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Lions70c321,325$224,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,397.593767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lions77c302,510$231,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,601.130043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Buccaneers30c255,942$77,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,611.1653348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Lions70c213,324$150,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,142.4433553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Lions72c169,579$121,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,318.4444652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Buccaneers16c142,664$23,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,176.3413843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Buccaneers29c125,156$36,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,295.297035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Lions69c125,000$86,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,749.935550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Buccaneers30c120,332$35,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,610.4712144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Lions70c103,907$72,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,920.4424957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Buccaneers15c101,135$15,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,170.281681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+147.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Lions70c91,698$64,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,509.462552%13 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Buccaneers29c90,000$26,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,099.998959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Buccaneers15c88,723$13,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,430.279944.4%44 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe42e…8d89backed Buccaneers30c80,000$24,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,001.791553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Buccaneers29c75,379$22,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,066.4112352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Lions70c73,480$51,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,8972133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Lions70c73,399$51,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,019.8327454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Lions71c64,487$45,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,701.2817454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Buccaneers26c62,721$16,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,359.7225137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Buccaneers31c51,542$15,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,97818650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Lions70c51,422$36,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,268.5325956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Lions70c51,149$35,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,344.6324456.6%138 W · 106 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x220c…43c8backed Lions69c50,000$34,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,499.982065%13 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Lions70c45,438$31,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,596.8431350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Buccaneers15c41,834$6,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,300.5413430.6%41 W · 93 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Lions70c37,321$26,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,196.310650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Lions69c36,103$24,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,191.8461148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x576d…767dbacked Buccaneers30c35,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,5001145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Lions70c33,614$23,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,084.293545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Buccaneers16c32,755$5,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,098.7614351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Lions70c32,380$22,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,7147440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Lions70c32,012$22,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,612.9513450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Lions70c31,000$21,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,429.993979.5%31 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Buccaneers29c30,000$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,7005048%24 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Buccaneers29c30,000$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,70011445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Buccaneers30c30,000$8,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,9008946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Buccaneers29c29,999$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,699.8331240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d72…2221backed Buccaneers30c28,046$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Buccaneers30c26,817$8,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,044.9917548%84 W · 91 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Lions70c26,195$18,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,858.511146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Lions67c21,427$14,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,070.9911649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Buccaneers29c20,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,70030743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Buccaneers31c20,000$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,200250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa78f…72dbbacked Buccaneers24c19,342$4,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,589.5270%0 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Lions73c18,113$13,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,852.041540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lions70c17,534$12,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,260.231848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Lions70c16,867$11,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,060.084365.1%28 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Lions70c16,139$11,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,809.2454451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9481…4931backed Buccaneers29c15,000$4,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,350616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-64.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Buccaneers14c15,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10020755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Lions70c14,038$9,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,211.44746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ac…16d3backed Buccaneers30c14,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,200425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0292…4211backed Lions70c13,721$9,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,052.83742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-18.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2aa3…666bbacked Buccaneers30c13,470$4,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,04130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x477e…f63ebacked Buccaneers30c13,429$4,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,028.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Buccaneers30c13,334$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.345527.3%15 W · 40 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0371…92bbbacked Lions70c13,200$9,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,960366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd6…bc18backed Buccaneers30c13,118$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.891764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+46%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Buccaneers8c12,630$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00411252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Buccaneers2c12,140$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.391969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Buccaneers21c11,827$2,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,502.5364747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Lions70c11,801$8,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,535.156339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Lions70c11,480$8,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,453.4641248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Lions69c11,111$7,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,444.4110442.3%44 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Lions70c10,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.9924652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Buccaneers29c9,534$2,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,764.942638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Buccaneers24c9,498$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,274.914252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lions69c9,493$6,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,984.0127348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Lions70c9,400$6,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,834.992842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Lions79c9,358$7,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.592552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Buccaneers0c9,251$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.071128%9 W · 103 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+413.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lions69c9,036$6,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,836.9431854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c86…366bbacked Buccaneers21c9,022$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9002245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf60…c76ebacked Buccaneers30c9,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Lions70c8,722$6,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,616.627339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7392…6e13backed Lions71c8,400$5,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,436333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e85…bb56backed Lions70c8,392$5,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,517.641070%7 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+58.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed Lions70c8,378$5,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,513.44757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Buccaneers17c8,265$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.6268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9170…a3b7backed Lions70c8,071$5,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.43683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+74.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa099…94febacked Buccaneers30c8,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40060%0 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8585…58d0backed Lions71c7,900$5,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2913100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+91.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Lions69c7,814$5,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,422.333444.1%15 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Lions70c7,511$5,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,252.6914951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e1…8b89backed Lions71c7,400$5,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,146475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed Buccaneers29c7,368$2,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,168.412454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+52%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x08b6…b789backed Buccaneers30c7,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Buccaneers23c6,940$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.496245.2%28 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Lions78c6,884$5,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.936550.8%33 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c9e…0b92backed Lions69c6,834$4,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,118.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Lions70c6,687$4,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.4583447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa3…b441backed Buccaneers6c6,678$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.821428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.