NFL · resolved market
Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 53.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb902d0381af1b1f56566ca250cd019231b38f77a9fa7bb213310a0b038ac9cc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 49c | 56,669$27,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,581.71 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 52c | 35,930$18,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,256.3 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 47c | 21,160$9,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,214.8 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked Over | 53c | 15,997$8,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,478.24 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 48c | 10,000$4,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,151.61 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 51c | 7,950$4,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,070.76 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 7,190$3,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,767.97 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 50c | 1,440$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Under | 50c | 1,436$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.82 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,113$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.11 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 1,085$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.95 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 52c | 838.48$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.47 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…8645backed Under | 52c | 620$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…86e0backed Over | 48c | 620$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 53c | 601.98$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.93 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 378.54$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.95 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 46c | 326.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.13 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 52c | 321.3$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.27 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 283.77$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.03 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 47c | 261.9$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Over | 55c | 107.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 16c | 82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 48c | 68.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0104…530ebacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…3363backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5107…4106backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…b17abacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Over | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 51c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 53.5this page
- Buccaneers vs. LionsLions won
- Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 52.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 54.5Under won
- Spread: Lions (-4.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-5.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.